Climate risk management for the U.S. cellulosic biofuels supply chain

Langholtz, Matthew; Webb, Erin; Preston, Benjamin L.; Turhollow, Anthony; Breuer, Norman; Eaton, Laurence; King, A. W.; Sokhansanj, S.; Nair, Sujithkumar Surendran; Downing, Mark

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2014.05.001

Cited by 40 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 127 publications

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“…Furthermore, although none of the reviewed dynamic studies accounts for climate change, it can have a significant impact on the flows of materials, electricity, communication, and energy and can affect the dynamics of volatile markets and the supply of resources (Levermann, ). Unanticipated shocks from extreme weather events can have a physical or regulatory impact on marine industries, such as fisheries (Fleming et al., ), biofuels (Langholtz et al., ), and agriculture and biosphere productivity (Lennon, ). Manufacturing processes are frequently subject to environmental regulations to control the carbon emissions (Dasaklis & Pappis, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future in and of criticality assessments

Ioannidou

Heeren

Sonnemann

et al. 2019

J of Industrial Ecology

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In recent literature, the concept of criticality aspires to provide a multifaceted risk assessment of resource supply shortage. However, most existing methodologies for the criticality assessment of raw materials are restricted to a fixed temporal and spatial reference system. They provide a snapshot in time of the equilibrium between supply and demand/economic importance and do not account for temporal changes of their indicators. The static character of criticality assessments limits the use of criticality methodologies to short-term policy making of raw materials. In the current paper, we argue for an enhancement of the criticality framework to account for three key dynamic characteristics, namely changes of social, technical, and economic features; consideration of the spatial dimension in site-specific assessments; and impact of changing governance frameworks. We illustrate how these issues were addressed in studies outside of the field of criticality and identify the dynamic parameters that influence resource supply and demand based on a review of studies that belong to the general field of resource supply and demand. The parameters are grouped in seven categories: extraction, social, economic, technical, policy, market dynamics, and environmental. We explore how these parameters were considered in the reviewed studies and propose ways and specific examples of addressing the dynamic effects in the criticality indicators. Furthermore, we discuss the current work on future scenarios to provide reference points for indicator benchmarks. The insights and guidelines derived from the review and our recommendations for future research set the foundations for an enhanced dynamic and site-specific criticality assessment framework.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future in and of criticality assessments

Ioannidou

Heeren

Sonnemann

et al. 2019

J of Industrial Ecology

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“…This uncertainty is due to the seasonal production of feedstocks along with the potential for supply disruptions caused by unfavorable and extreme weather events during growth, harvest, and storage. 6,7 Biomass supply disruptions can cause a biorefinery to operate below capacity, perhaps making it economically unsustainable. 8 Biorefineries using multiple feedstocks may reduce the biomass supply risk 9 and delivery cost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the feedstock supply for siting single‐ and multiple‐feedstock biorefineries in the USA and identification of prevalent feedstocks

Sharma

Brandt

McCullough‐Amal

et al. 2020

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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An integrated multi-feedstock bioenergy (i.e., biofuel, biopower, or bioproduct) supply system has potential to reduce biomass supply system uncertainties and costs. This study identifies optimal configurations of multi-feedstock biomass-to-biorefinery supply chains and pertinent feedstock combinations based on spatial distribution of feedstock and lowest delivered cost to the biorefinery. We used the Supply Characterization Model (SCM) to allocate feedstock supplies to candidate biorefinery facilities. Model runs were performed for herbaceous energy crops, agriculture residue, and woody biomass available in 2017, 2022, 2025, and 2030 as estimated by the Policy Analysis System (POLYSYS) and Forest Sustainable and Economic Analysis Model (ForSEAM) models. Three feedstock supply scenarios were compared: (a) an herbaceous scenario: switchgrass, miscanthus, biosorghum, and corn stover; (b) a woody scenario: coppice wood, noncoppice wood, whole trees, and forestry residues, and (c) a mixed scenario: a combination of all feedstocks in herbaceous and woody scenarios. By 2030 the analyses predicted that 323, 168, and 473 biorefineries were sited in the herbaceous, woody, and mixed scenario, respectively, in the conterminous USA. Feedstock mixes supplied to the biorefineries were mostly dominated by a single feedstock. The most prominent feedstock mixes identified were: † (1) switchgrass and miscanthus; (2) coppice and noncoppice wood; and (3) coppice wood, noncoppice wood, switchgrass and miscanthus. Biorefineries using multi-feedstock would be beneficial for growth of bioeconomy, however flexible and cost-effective conversion platforms should be developed to efficiently utilize multiple feedstocks. This analysis identifies biorefinery locations and feedstock supply mixes while minimizing delivered feedstock costs based on spatial and temporal feedstock availability.

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“…Widespread droughts covering 30% of the U.S. have occurred every decade since 1900, and drought frequency has increased in recent decades [3,4]. To make matters worse, extreme weather events, like drought, are predicted to become more prevalent under future climate scenarios with corresponding decreases in gross primary productivity [5][6][7][8]. The economic impacts of drought are exemplified by the $30 billion in losses from a recent U.S. nationwide drought in 2012 that primarily impacted the agricultural industry as a result of outcomes such as a 27% reduction in U.S. corn grain yields [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Impacts on Bioenergy Supply System Risk and Biomass Composition

Hoover¹,

Emerson²,

Hansen³

et al. 2020

Drought - Detection and Solutions

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Bioenergy is an important renewable energy option worldwide, but the industry is susceptible to a myriad of risks including biomass supply, of which drought plays a role. Crops yields decrease during drought, increasing year-to-year risk for the agricultural industry. For the renewable energy industry, in particular, the effect of drought on crops is substantial and complex. This chapter discusses the current state of knowledge regarding how drought affects biomass destined for renewable energy as it relates to dry biomass yields and chemistry, the latter of which heavily impacts cost of production and final product yields. Advanced supply systems are one option for reducing biomass supply risk. These systems lead to higher, less variable crop yields during uncontrollable events like drought; however, the quality of material supplied in a drought year may still vary as drought impacts plant chemistry. This chapter provides analysis for chemical composition of four bioenergy crops observing that both carbohydrates and lignin decrease during a drought year compared to a year with minimal to no drought. These chemical changes can impact biochemical conversion through inhibitor formation and altering degradability during pretreatment.

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Climate risk management for the U.S. cellulosic biofuels supply chain

Cited by 40 publications

References 127 publications

The future in and of criticality assessments

The future in and of criticality assessments

Assessment of the feedstock supply for siting single‐ and multiple‐feedstock biorefineries in the USA and identification of prevalent feedstocks

Drought Impacts on Bioenergy Supply System Risk and Biomass Composition

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