Climate Scenarios for the conterminous United States at the county spatial scale using SRES scenarios B2 and PRISM climatology

Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda A.; Price, David T.; McKenney, Daniel W.

doi:10.2737/rds-2010-0009

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…Future projected climate variables from GCMs (three GCMs and two greenhouse gas emission storylines) for the period of 1981–2060 were acquired from Coulson et al . (2010a,b).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the potential role of forest thinning in maintaining water supplies under a changing climate across the conterminous United States

Sun

Caldwell

McNulty

2015

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:The goal of this study was to test the sensitivity of water yield to forest thinning and other forest management/disturbances and climate across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Leaf area index (LAI) was selected as a key parameter linking changes in forest ecosystem structure and functions. We used the Water Supply Stress Index model to examine water yield response under 18 scenarios that combine hypothetical LAI changes (+10%, ±20%, À50%, and À80%), uniform increases in temperature (+1°C and +2°C) and precipitation change (±10%), and four climate change scenarios projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for the year 2050. Approximately 2100 large basins produced approximately 2003 billion cubic metres of water annually from 2002 to 2007. Forest lands covered 23% of the land surface area, but contributed 43% of the total water yield for the CONUS. As a whole, water yield increased by 3%, 8%, and 13% when LAI was reduced 20%, 50%, and 80%, respectively, while water yield decreased by 3% when LAI increased by 20%. Temperature increases of 2°C alone could decrease water yield by 11%. A reduction of precipitation by 10% and 20% could result in a decrease of water yield by 20% and 39%, respectively. The direction and magnitude of water yield response to the combinations of LAI (+10%), climate warming (+1°C), and precipitation change (±10%) were dominated by the change in precipitation. Climate change projected by the four GCMs (CSIROMK2 B2, CSIROMK3.5 A1B, HADCM3 B2, and MIROC32 A1B) resulted in a large change in water yield (+18% to À64%) by 2045-2055 when compared with the baseline. A 50% reduction in forest LAI under the four GCMs scenarios could greatly mitigate or exacerbate future climate change impacts on water yield in forest-dominated watersheds with high precipitation. This study provides the first quantitative estimate of the effects of forest thinning options on water yield under future climate across the CONUS. Effective forest water management for climate mitigation should focus on those watersheds identified. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

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“…Future projected climate variables from GCMs (three GCMs and two greenhouse gas emission storylines) for the period of 1981–2060 were acquired from Coulson et al . (2010a,b).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the potential role of forest thinning in maintaining water supplies under a changing climate across the conterminous United States

Sun

Caldwell

McNulty

2015

Hydrological Processes

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“…The RPA Assessment used climate (Coulson et al ., , b), land‐use (Wear, ), and population (Zarnoch et al ., ) projections consistent with greenhouse gas emission scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (USDA Forest Service, ). Emission scenarios resulted from IPCC storylines that made different assumptions about changing global populations and gross domestic product (Table ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future climate data from Coulson et al . (, b), land‐use from Wear (), and population projections from Zarnoch et al . ().…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Stress Projections for the Northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and Ecological Consequences

Tavernia

Nelson

Caldwell

et al. 2013

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Future climate and land-use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast and Midwest and (2) native fish species richness (i.e., number of species) for the Upper Mississippi water resource region (UMWRR). Six alternative scenarios of climate change, land-use change, and human population growth indicated future water supplies will, on average across the region, be adequate to meet anthropogenic demands. Nevertheless, the number of individual watersheds experiencing severe stress (demand > supplies) was projected to increase for most scenarios, and some watersheds were projected to experience severe stress under multiple scenarios. Similarly, we projected declines in fish species richness for UMWRR watersheds and found the number of watersheds with projected declines and the average magnitude of declines varied across scenarios. All watersheds in the UMWRR were projected to experience declines in richness for at least two future scenarios. Many watersheds projected to experience declines in fish species richness were not projected to experience severe anthropogenic water stress, emphasizing the need for multidimensional impact assessments of changing water resources.(KEY TERMS: fish; climate variability/change; surface water hydrology; land-use/land-cover change; planning; water supply; water use; water stress; GIS.)

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“…Future water supply varies according to climate change projections, based on emission scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC 2000). Climate change projections in the WaSSi model are based on downscaled climate modeling by Coulson et al (2010) comprising monthly precipitation, monthly means of daily maximum air temperature, and monthly means of daily minimum air temperature. Our base-case climate projection uses the SRES B2 emission scenario, while the projected climate change associated with the SRES A1B emission scenario is also analyzed in a sensitivity analysis.…”

Section: Water Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially-explicit water balance implications of carbon capture and sequestration

Breunig

Greenblatt

Larsen

et al. 2016

Environmental Modelling & Software

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Implementation of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will increase water demand due to the cooling water requirements of CO 2 capture equipment. If the captured CO 2 is injected into saline aquifers for sequestration, brine may be extracted to manage the aquifer pressure, and can be desalinated to provide additional freshwater supply. We conduct a geospatial analysis to determine how CCS may affect local water supply and demand across the contiguous United States. We calculate baseline indices for each county in the year 2005, and project future water supply and demand with and without CCS through 2030. We conduct sensitivity analyses to identify the system parameters that most significantly affect water balance. Water supply changes due to inter-annual variability and projected climate change are overwhelmingly the most significant sources of variation. CCS can have strong local effects on water supply and demand, but overall it has a modest effect on water balances.

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Climate Scenarios for the conterminous United States at the county spatial scale using SRES scenarios B2 and PRISM climatology

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Modelling the potential role of forest thinning in maintaining water supplies under a changing climate across the conterminous United States

Modelling the potential role of forest thinning in maintaining water supplies under a changing climate across the conterminous United States

Water Stress Projections for the Northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and Ecological Consequences

Spatially-explicit water balance implications of carbon capture and sequestration

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