Climate–society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change

Jarvis, Andrew; Leedal, David; Hewitt, C. Nicholas

doi:10.1038/nclimate1586

Cited by 55 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Figure 1 (upper panel) compares total CO 2 emissions f E (t) with an exponential trajectory from 1850 to 2011, using an average growth rate of 1.89 % yr −1 = (1/53) yr −1 or a doubling time of 36.7 yr (also see Jarvis et al, 2012). The short-term growth rate has oscillated around this average value, decreasing below it in the 1980s and 1990s and accelerating above it in the first decade of the 2000s (Le Quéré et al, 2009).…”

Section: Ratios Among Fluxes and State Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings

Raupach

2013

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. Several basic ratios of responses to forcings in the carbon-climate system are observed to be relatively steady. Examples include the CO 2 airborne fraction (the fraction of the total anthropogenic CO 2 emission flux that accumulates in the atmosphere) and the ratio T /Q E of warming (T ) to cumulative total CO 2 emissions (Q E ). This paper explores the reason for such near-constancy in the past, and its likely limitations in future.The contemporary carbon-climate system is often approximated as a set of first-order linear systems, for example in response-function descriptions. All such linear systems have exponential eigenfunctions in time (an eigenfunction being one that, if applied to the system as a forcing, produces a response of the same shape). This implies that, if the carbonclimate system is idealised as a linear system (Lin) forced by exponentially growing CO 2 emissions (Exp), then all ratios of responses to forcings are constant. Important cases are the CO 2 airborne fraction (AF), the cumulative airborne fraction (CAF), other CO 2 partition fractions and cumulative partition fractions into land and ocean stores, the CO 2 sink uptake rate (k S , the combined land and ocean CO 2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO 2 ), and the ratio T /Q E . Further, the AF and the CAF are equal. Since the Lin and Exp idealisations apply approximately to the carbon-climate system over the past two centuries, the theory explains the observed near-constancy of the AF, CAF and T /Q E in this period.A nonlinear carbon-climate model is used to explore how future breakdown of both the Lin and Exp idealisations will cause the AF, CAF and k S to depart significantly from constancy, in ways that depend on CO 2 emissions scenarios. However, T /Q E remains approximately constant in typical scenarios, because of compensating interactions between CO 2 emissions trajectories, carbon-climate nonlinearities (in land-air and ocean-air carbon exchanges and CO 2 radiative forcing), and emissions trajectories for non-CO 2 gases. This theory establishes a basis for the widely assumed proportionality between T and Q E , and identifies the limits of this relationship.

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Section: Ratios Among Fluxes and State Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings

Raupach

2013

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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“…Figure 3 shows the primary energy use data, x, for the period 1850-2010. These suggest that, in the long term, x has grown near exponentially since at least 1850, with a longterm relative growth rate of 2.4 (±0.08) yr −1 (Jarvis et al, 2012). 2 Using global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data as a proxy for global energy use, Garrett (2014) suggests that the relative growth rate of global primary energy has 2 Relative growth rates have been estimated using ordinary least squares of the general linear model ln(x) = θ (t − t 1 ).…”

Section: Long-run Growth and Decarbonisation Of Global Energy Usementioning

confidence: 96%

“…3 Figure 3 shows that global carbon emissions, y, have also grown near-exponentially since at least 1850 at the long-term rate of 1.8 (±0.06) % yr −1 (Jarvis et al, 2012). The difference between this growth rate and the growth rate of primary energy indicates that the global primary energy portfolio has been systematically decarbonised at a rate of ∼ 0.6 % yr −1 since at least 1850 (Jarvis et al, 2012). This decarbonisation is normally viewed as being the result of societal preferences for cleaner, more convenient, energy carriers (Grübler and Nakienovic, 1996).…”

Section: Long-run Growth and Decarbonisation Of Global Energy Usementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As mentioned earlier, global primary energy use, x, is taken here to be the annual energy flow from the environment to society in the form of wood, coal, oil, gas, nuclear, renewables and food. In order to construct a consistent time series for x since 1850, following Jarvis et al (2012), the global primary energy use data for the period 1850 to 1964 are taken from Grübler (2003) and for the period from 1965 to 2010 from BP (2011). We note that compiling long-term historic series for virtually any relevant measure of economic activity is challenging due to the paucity of available data and increasing uncertainties the further back one goes.…”

Section: Long-run Growth and Decarbonisation Of Global Energy Usementioning

confidence: 99%

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Resource acquisition, distribution and end-use efficiencies and the growth of industrial society

Jarvis

Hewitt

2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract.A key feature of the growth of industrial society is the acquisition of increasing quantities of resources from the environment and their distribution for end-use. With respect to energy, the growth of industrial society appears to have been near-exponential for the last 160 years. We provide evidence that indicates that the global distribution of resources that underpins this growth may be facilitated by the continual development and expansion of near-optimal directed networks (roads, railways, flight paths, pipelines, cables etc.). However, despite this continual striving for optimisation, the distribution efficiencies of these networks must decline over time as they expand due to path lengths becoming longer and more tortuous. Therefore, to maintain long-term exponential growth the physical limits placed on the distribution networks appear to be counteracted by innovations deployed elsewhere in the system, namely at the points of acquisition and end-use of resources. We postulate that the maintenance of the growth of industrial society, as measured by global energy use, at the observed rate of ∼ 2.4 % yr −1 stems from an implicit desire to optimise patterns of energy use over human working lifetimes.

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“…With the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report, in 2007 [6][7][8], anthropogenic global warming [9][10][11][12][13] was identified as the most likely cause of climate change [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22], since the intensive use of fossil fuels produces large-scale emissions of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Then, we are faced with a big dilemma: we need to modify the planetary energy matrix, replacing fossil fuels for energy sources of low carbon impact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current energy crisis and its economic and environmental consequences: Intense human cooperation

Sthel

Tostes²,

Tavares³

2013

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Climate–society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change

Cited by 55 publications

References 16 publications

The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings

The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings

Resource acquisition, distribution and end-use efficiencies and the growth of industrial society

Current energy crisis and its economic and environmental consequences: Intense human cooperation

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