Climate Time Series Analysis

Mudelsee, Manfred

doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9482-7

Cited by 174 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The basemap was generated with GeoMapApp (http://www.geomapapp.org) using the Global Multi-Resolution Topography synthesis database 48 . Yellow arrows on inset map indicate main aeolian dust paths 8 temporal variability through the termination, except during the ACR and between 6 and 3 ka, when dry conditions generally prevailed throughout the region (Fig. 2).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To determine the statistical uncertainty for estimated change points, we performed computing-intensive block bootstrap resampling 8 . The bootstrap (resampling from the residuals) provides robustness against violations of distributional assumptions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We normalized K and Al against calcium (Ca), derived from biogenic carbonate, and against barium (Ba), related to the particulate organic matter flux and/or precipitation of barite by marine bacteria, inferring relatively small and independent variability in the flux rates of these two elements in relation to terrigenous flux (Supplementary Figs 4-6). We quantified change points in the data series and provided uncertainty estimates using the software RAMPFIT, which was adapted to perform block bootstrap resampling 8 . We additionally used iron (Fe), titanium (Ti) and zirconium (Zr), which are elements enriched in aeolian dust from the NW Australian deserts in the southwestern Core SO185-18506, to track the northern limit of the NW Australian dust belt 9 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene

et al. 2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO 2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene

et al. 2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…ACCs and MSEs are defined with respect to the observations. Given a reference forecast, skill scores for our hindcasts can be calculated from ACCs and MSEs (Murphy 1988;Mudelsee 2010), leading to a correlation skill score (CSS):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow.

show abstract

“…Time series trends and associated break points (timing of trends change) are quantified using a parametric, nonlinear regression technique called "breakfit regression" developed by Mudelsee [45,46]. This model is a continuous function consisting of two linear parts that are joined at the break point.…”

Section: Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Declines in Warming and Vegetation Greening Trends over Pan-Arctic Tundra

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate Time Series Analysis

Cited by 174 publications

References 0 publications

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene

Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

Recent Declines in Warming and Vegetation Greening Trends over Pan-Arctic Tundra

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About