Abstract. We evaluated how ranges of four endemic and non-endemic aquatic ostracode
species changed in response to long-term (glacial–interglacial cycles) and
abrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northern
Neotropical region. We employed two complementary approaches, fossil records
and species distribution models (SDMs). Fossil assemblages were obtained
from sediment cores PI-1, PI-2, PI-6 and Petén-Itzá 22-VIII-99 from
the Petén Itzá Scientific Drilling Project, Lake Petén Itzá,
Guatemala. To obtain a spatially resolved pattern of (past) species
distribution, a downscaling cascade is employed. SDMs were reconstructed
for the last interglacial (∼120 ka), the last glacial maximum (∼22 ka) and the middle Holocene (∼6 ka). During glacial and interglacial cycles and marine isotope stages (MISs),
modelled paleo-distributions and paleo-records show the nearly continuous
presence of endemic and non-endemic species in the region, suggesting
negligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic niche
stability. During periods of abrupt ecological disruption such as Heinrich
Stadial 1 (HS1), endemic species were resilient, remaining within their
current areas of distribution. Non-endemic species, however, proved to be
more sensitive. Modelled paleo-distributions suggest that the geographic
range of non-endemic species changed, moving southward into Central America.
Due to the uncertainties involved in the downscaling from the global
numerical to the highly resolved regional geospatial statistical modelling,
results can be seen as a benchmark for future studies using similar
approaches. Given relatively moderate temperature decreases in Lake
Petén Itzá waters (∼5 ∘C) and
the persistence of some aquatic ecosystems even during periods of severe drying
in HS1, our data suggest (1) the existence of micro-refugia and/or (2) continuous
interaction between central metapopulations and surrounding populations,
enabling aquatic taxa to survive climate fluctuations in the northern
Neotropical region.