Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P. C. D.; Jaffé, Peter R.

doi:10.1002/2016gl069254

Cited by 38 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Because of this, when climate change is added to the TMDL nutrient reductions, there is likely to be greater disparity in terms of anoxic volume between wet and dry years. Further intensifying the difference between wet and dry years is the potential impact of nutrient storage in the watershed during dry years that is delivered to the Bay in a successive wet year, amplifying 480 hypoxia and anoxia (Lee et al, 2016).…”

Section: How Will Climate Change Impact Do If the Tmdl Nutrient Reducmentioning

confidence: 99%

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

Irby¹,

Friedrichs²,

Da³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The Chesapeake Bay region is projected to experience changes in temperature, sea level, and 15 precipitation as a result of climate change. This research uses an estuarine-watershed hydrodynamicbiogeochemical modeling system along with projected changes in temperature, freshwater flow, and sea level rise for a 2050 scenario to explore the impact climate change may have on future Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and the potential success of nutrient reductions in attaining mandated estuarine water quality improvements. Results indicate that warming Bay waters will decrease 20 oxygen solubility year-round, while also increasing oxygen utilization via respiration and remineralization, primarily impacting bottom oxygen in the spring. Rising sea level will increase the volume of the Bay, pushing coastal saline water further into the Bay. Changes in precipitation are projected to deliver higher winter and spring freshwater flow and nutrient loads, fueling increased primary production. Together, these multiple climate impacts will lower DO throughout the Chesapeake Bay and negatively impact progress 25 towards meeting water quality standards associated with the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load.However, this research also shows that the potential impacts of climate change will be significantly smaller than improvements in DO expected in response to the required nutrient reductions, especially at the anoxic and hypoxic levels. Overall, increased temperature exhibits the strongest control on the change in future DO concentrations, primarily due to decreased solubility, while sea level rise is expected to exert a small 30 positive impact and increased winter river flow is anticipated to exert a small negative impact.Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi

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Section: How Will Climate Change Impact Do If the Tmdl Nutrient Reducmentioning

confidence: 99%

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

Irby¹,

Friedrichs²,

Da³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Because of this, when climate change is added to the TMDL nutrient reductions, there is likely to be greater disparity in terms of anoxic volume between wet and dry years. Further intensifying the difference between wet and dry years is the potential impact of nutrient storage in the watershed during dry years that is delivered to the bay in a successive wet year, amplifying hypoxia and anoxia (Lee et al, 2016).…”

Section: How Will Climate Change Impact Do If the Tmdl Nutrient Reducmentioning

confidence: 99%

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The Chesapeake Bay region is projected to experience changes in temperature, sea level, and precipitation as a result of climate change. This research uses an estuarine-watershed hydrodynamic-biogeochemical modeling system along with projected mid-21st-century changes in temperature, freshwater flow, and sea level rise to explore the impact climate change may have on future Chesapeake Bay dissolved-oxygen (DO) concentrations and the potential success of nutrient reductions in attaining mandated estuarine water quality improvements. Results indicate that warming bay waters will decrease oxygen solubility year-round, while also increasing oxygen utilization via respiration and remineralization, primarily impacting bottom oxygen in the spring. Rising sea level will increase estuarine circulation, reducing residence time in bottom waters and increasing stratification. As a result, oxygen concentrations in bottom waters are projected to increase, while oxygen concentrations at mid-depths (3 < DO < 5 mg L −1 ) will typically decrease. Changes in precipitation are projected to deliver higher winter and spring freshwater flow and nutrient loads, fueling increased primary production. Together, these multiple climate impacts will lower DO throughout the Chesapeake Bay and negatively impact progress towards meeting water quality standards associated with the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load. However, this research also shows that the potential impacts of climate change will be significantly smaller than improvements in DO expected in response to the required nutrient reductions, especially at the anoxic and hypoxic levels. Overall, increased temperature exhibits the strongest control on the change in future DO concentrations, primarily due to decreased solubility, while sea level rise is expected to exert a small positive impact and increased winter river flow is anticipated to exert a small negative impact.

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“…Climate‐induced ecosystem changes (e.g., increased stream temperature and altered hydrologic regimes) add to, and often interact with, existing stressors to exacerbate current patterns of physicochemical degradation (Daraio and Bales , Lee et al. ) and associated biological and distributional response (Mantyka‐Pringle et al. , Piggott et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rising air temperatures and widespread land use development have led to increasing water temperature trends in some rivers (Rice and Jastram ), which together with altered flow regimes have begun to alter stressor dynamics and exacerbate ecological impacts of land use development (Preston , Rice and Jastram , Lee et al. ). Despite current and potential future limitations, however, the Chesapeake Bay watershed contains critical intact brook trout habitats and populations that are of high conservation priority (Hudy et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Historic and contemporary land use (e.g., agricultural land use and urban development) have degraded available habitat and considerably altered brook trout distribution throughout the watershed (Hudy et al 2008, DeWeber and Wagner 2015, Merriam et al 2018. Rising air temperatures and widespread land use development have led to increasing water temperature trends in some rivers (Rice and Jastram 2015), which together with altered flow regimes have begun to alter stressor dynamics and exacerbate ecological impacts of land use development (Preston 2004, Rice and Jastram 2015, Lee et al 2016. Despite current and potential future limitations, however, the Chesapeake Bay watershed contains critical intact brook trout habitats and populations that are of high conservation priority (Hudy et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Conservation planning at the intersection of landscape and climate change: brook trout in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

2019

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We developed a multi‐scale conservation planning framework for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) within the Chesapeake Bay watershed that incorporates both land use and climate stressors. Our specific objectives were to (1) construct a continuous spatial model of brook trout distribution and habitat quality at the stream reach scale; (2) characterize brook trout vulnerability to climate change under a range of future climate scenarios; and (3) identify multi‐scale restoration and protection priorities for brook trout across the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Boosted regression tree analysis predicted brook trout occurrence at the stream reach scale with a high degree of accuracy (CV AUC = 0.92) as a function of both natural (e.g., water temperature and precipitation) and anthropogenic (e.g., agriculture and urban development) landscape and climatic attributes. Current land use activities result in a predicted loss of occurrence in over 11,000 stream segments (40% of suitable habitat) and account for over 15,000 km (45% of current value) of lost functional brook trout fishery value (i.e., length‐weighted occurrence probability) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Climate change (increased ambient temperatures and altered precipitation) is projected to result in a loss of occurrence in at least 3000 additional segments (19% of current value) and at least 3000 km of functional fishery value (9% of current value) by 2062. Model outcomes were used to identify low‐ and high‐quality stream segments within relatively intact and degraded sub‐watersheds as restoration and protection priorities, respectively, and conservation priorities were targeted in watersheds with high projected resilience to climate change. Our results suggest that traditional restoration activities, such as habitat enhancement, riparian management, and barrier removal, may be able to recover a substantial amount of brook trout habitat lost to historic landscape change. However, restoration efforts must be designed within the context of expected impacts from climate change or those efforts may not produce long‐term benefits to brook trout in this region.

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Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

Cited by 38 publications

References 44 publications

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

Conservation planning at the intersection of landscape and climate change: brook trout in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

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