Climate Variability and Transnational Migration: A Dyadic Analysis

Abstract

This research builds upon and extends earlier research by studying whether people leave their homes and migrate to other states due to weather changes associated with climate variability. In particular, I examine how push and pull factors jointly influence emigration. Empirically, the theoretical arguments are analysed quantitatively with time-series cross-section data on transnational migration since the 1960s. The results suggest that climate indicators are strongly and robustly associated with transnational migration. The dyadic nature of the analysis allows for a close examination of patterns across pairs of countries by clearly distinguishing between “source” and “destination.” Controlling for unobserved influences via country and year fixed effects, as well as a series of robustness checks, further increases the confidence in this finding. This research substantially improves our understanding of climate-induced migration and emphasizes that it is, in fact, a global phenomenon.

Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

“…Although a small body of evidence suggests that environmental variables may function as migration‐related “pull” factors and that people may move to places with more stable and favorable climatic conditions, these studies do not examine environmental “in‐migration” incentives associated with climate change specifically. For example, high‐temperature shocks may be associated with movement toward countries with colder temperatures, which may be viewed as more “environmentally safe” (Bakaki, 2021), and when experiencing fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, people may move to areas with lower rainfall variability and lower likelihood of drought (Lewin et al, 2012) or with higher precipitation (Nguyen, 2021), which may present more favorable agricultural production and employment conditions. Some research suggests that in the context of climate‐related changes, environmental pull factors, notably more attractive rainfall patterns and fertile land, may be more commonly identified than push factors as reasons for migration (van der Geest, 2011).…”

Nowy ład przestrzenny miasta wielokulturowego. Valletta, Malta

“…The subject of the design was the revitalization of Valletta's waterfront in addition to protection against and counteracting the negative consequences of climate change (Bakaki Z., 2021). The decayed and neglected waterfront of Valletta was transformed into a friendly space that offers contemporary architecture and organized meeting and recreation spaces.…”