Climate Variability May Delay Post-Fire Recovery of Boreal Forest in Southern Siberia, Russia

Sun, Qiang; Burrell, Arden; Barrett, Kirsten; Kukavskaya, Elena; Buryak, L. V.; Kaduk, Jörg; Baxter, Robert C.

doi:10.3390/rs13122247

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…In Canada, NECB source areas included Nunavvut, the Northwest Territories, northern regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and northwest Quebec which have experienced substantial drought and fire disturbance (Whitman et al, 2019; Zhao et al, 2021). In Siberia, NECB source occurred primarily across the tundra, driven by R eco outpacing GPP, and within the southern boreal zone which has been impacted by drought and fire (Sun et al, 2021; Veraverbeke et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high‐latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

Watts

Farina

Kimball

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Arctic‐boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic‐boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE; Reco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH4) emissions for the Arctic‐boreal zone using a satellite data‐driven process‐model for northern ecosystems (TCFM‐Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM‐Arctic to obtain daily 1‐km2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan‐Arctic‐boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO2‐C year−1. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH4) were estimated at 35 Tg CH4‐C year−1. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high‐latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site‐to‐regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhao et al, 2021). In Siberia, NECB source occurred primarily across the tundra, driven by R eco outpacing GPP, and within the southern boreal zone which has been impacted by drought and fire (Sun et al, 2021;Veraverbeke et al, 2021).…”

Section: Regional Necb Emission Statusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high‐latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

Watts

Farina

Kimball

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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“…It is important to have a holistic view and consider jointly different disturbance types because they can accumulate over time and space. For instance, drought affects more strongly post-fire young forests than mature forests in Siberia, delaying their recovery [70]. As a result, very large areas of the boreal forests may experience at least one type of natural disturbance in the future (e.g., in Canada [30]).…”

Section: How Extreme Events May Put Boreal Forests At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing Resilience of Boreal Forests Through Management Under Global Change: a Review

Triviño

Potterf

Tijerín-Triviño

et al. 2023

Curr Landscape Ecol Rep

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Purpose of Review Boreal forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are important to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. Here, we review how changes in climate and its associated extreme events (e.g., windstorms) are putting at risk the capacity of these forests to continue providing ecosystem services. We further analyze the role of forest management to increase forest resilience to the combined effects of climate change and extreme events. Recent Findings Enhancing forest resilience recently gained a lot of interest from theoretical perspective. Yet, it remains unclear how to translate the theoretical knowledge into practice and how to operationalize boreal forest management to maintain forest ecosystem services and functions under changing global conditions. We identify and summarize the main management approaches (natural disturbance emulation, landscape functional zoning, functional complex network, and climate-smart forestry) that can promote forest resilience. Summary We review the concept of resilience in forest sciences, how extreme events may put boreal forests at risk, and how management can alleviate or promote such risks. We found that the combined effects of increased temperatures and extreme events are having negative impacts on forests. Then, we discuss how the main management approaches could enhance forest resilience and multifunctionality (simultaneous provision of high levels of multiple ecosystem services and species habitats). Finally, we identify the complementary strengths of individual approaches and report challenges on how to implement them in practice.

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“…Climate change has driven mixed and negative impacts on boreal forest AGB though shifts in moisture availability (D'Orangeville et al, 2018;Hember et al, 2017a;Luo et al, 2019) and more frequent and intense droughts (Itter et al, 2019;Rogers et al, 2018), as well as increasing frequency of disturbance events like fires (Abatzoglou et al, 2018;Hanes et al, 2018;Jia et al, 2019;Walker et al, 2019) and disease or pest outbreaks (Jia et al, 2019;Rogers et al, 2018). These processes interact with each other in complex ways (Burrell et al, 2021;Peng et al, 2011), and can have different impacts on mature and younger forests Sun et al, 2021). The complexity of these interacting process and forest responses has generated considerable uncertainty in the current extent and drivers of change in boreal AGB (D'Orangeville et al, 2018;Girardin et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2021), and are likely to continue changing with further climate warming (Zhang et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result of the growing need for near‐term predictions of AGB change, some studies have attempted to inform management decisions by conducting site‐level modeling using statistical and machine learning (ML) methods (Lidberg et al, 2020; Liu et al, 2018; Sun et al, 2021). Existing ML studies have two primary potential hurdles that have limited their widespread use for biomass change prediction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The predictability of near‐term forest biomass change in boreal North America

Burrell,

Cooperdock,

Potter

et al. 2024

Ecosphere

Self Cite

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Climate change is driving substantial changes in North American boreal forests, including changes in productivity, mortality, recruitment, and biomass. Despite the importance for carbon budgets and informing management decisions, there is a lack of near‐term (5–30 year) forecasts of expected changes in aboveground biomass (AGB). In this study, we forecast AGB changes across the North American boreal forest using machine learning, repeat measurements from 25,000 forest inventory sites, and gridded geospatial datasets. We find that AGB change can be predicted up to 30 years into the future, and that training on sites across the entire domain allows accurate predictions even in regions with only a small amount of existing field data. While predicting AGB loss is less skillful than gains, using a multi‐model ensemble can improve the accuracy in detecting change direction to >90% for observed increases, and up to 70% for observed losses. Higher stem density, winter temperatures, and the presence of temperate tree species in forest plots were positively associated with AGB change, whereas greater initial biomass, continentality (difference between mean summer and winter temperatures), prevalence of black spruce (Picea mariana), summer precipitation, and early warning metrics from long‐term remote sensing time series were negatively associated with AGB change. Across the domain, we predict nondisturbance‐induced declines in AGB at 23% of sites by 2030. The approach developed here can be used to estimate near‐future forest biomass in boreal North America and inform relevant management decisions. Our study also highlights the power of machine learning multi‐model ensembles when trained on a large volume of forest inventory plots, which could be applied to other regions with adequate plot density and spatial coverage.

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Climate Variability May Delay Post-Fire Recovery of Boreal Forest in Southern Siberia, Russia

Cited by 11 publications

References 75 publications

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high‐latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high‐latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

Enhancing Resilience of Boreal Forests Through Management Under Global Change: a Review

The predictability of near‐term forest biomass change in boreal North America

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