Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas

Abstract

SignificanceClimate warming is impacting the cryosphere in high mountain ranges, thereby enhancing the probability for more and larger mass-wasting processes to occur. This tree-ring–based snow avalanche reconstruction in the Indian Himalayas shows an increase in avalanche occurrence and runout distances in recent decades. Statistical modeling suggests that this increase in avalanche activity is linked to contemporaneous climate warming. These findings contradict the intuitive assumption that warming results in less snow, and thus fewer snow avalanches in the region, with major implications for disaster risk management and risk mitigation in a region with steadily increasing human occupation.

Parsing Synthetic Aperture Radar Measurements of Snow in Complex Terrain: Scaling Behaviour and Sensitivity to Snow Wetness and Landcover

“…SCA inter-annual variability is tied to the Earth's climate because its high surface albedo governs the energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere in the cold regions of the world [1][2][3][4], where seasonal snowpacks represent the most important freshwater resource (quantified as snow water equivalent SWE). Natural hazards in regions of complex terrain such as avalanches and spring flash-floods often occur during the transition from snow-on to snow-free conditions [5][6][7]. This transition is characterized by changes in snowpack thermodynamics resulting in changes in snow stratigraphy, and snow microstructure (e.g., snow grain size distribution) and composition (e.g., ice versus liquid water content, LWC) leading to snowmelt.…”

La dinámica del paisaje en la Sierra del Aramo (Macizo Central Asturiano): procesos naturales y antrópicos

“…En realidad, apenas se conoce el efecto del cambio climático sobre la actividad de los aludes de nieve (Teich et al, 2012b), no obstante, se ha observado una disminución en la altitud de la zona de salida (Eckert et al, 2010) unido a un incremento de la proporción relativa de los aludes húmedos (Martin et al, 2001). Efectivamente, el aumento de las temperaturas medias produce importantes contrastes térmicos en los periodos en los que se producen los temporales de nieve, contribuyendo a la fusión y a la generación de mantos nivales con estructuras inestables que favorecen el desencadenamiento de este tipo de aludes (Jamieson, 2006;Naaim et al, 2016;Schläppy et al, 2016;Muntán, 2016;Ballesteros-Cánovas et al, 2018).…”

“…Por otro lado, el aumento de las temperaturas debido al cambio climático no solo contribuye a la matorralización y reforestación, sino que también afecta a otros procesos ecológicos montanos como el desencadenamiento de aludes de nieve húmeda (Naaim et al, 2016;Schläppy et al, 2016;Muntán, 2016). Así, el calentamiento global está incrementando este tipo de amenaza con repercusión sobre las cubiertas forestales y las infraestructuras (Ballesteros-Cánovas et al, 2018;Heffernan, 2018).…”

Avalanche activity and socio-environmental changes leave strong footprints in forested landscapes: a case study in the Vosges medium-high mountain range

“…This is because of the strong impact of historical sources on the homogeneity of avalanche records (Giacona and others, 2017b) that precludes from easily inferring avalanche–climate linkages over the long range, in the Vosges Mountains like elsewhere (e.g. Eckert and others, 2013; Ballesteros-Cánovas and others, 2018). However, our historical enquiry truly documents, despite the overall recent increase on the record, more extreme and/or highly destructive avalanches in the distant past, with no more intensity five avalanches since winter 1950/51, and several intensity five avalanches that caused building destructions, major forest damage and killed people during the 19th century.…”