Climate warming induced synchronous growth decline in Norway spruce populations across biogeographical gradients since 2000

Bošeľa, Michal; Tumajer, Jan; Cienciala, Emil; Dobor, Laura; Kulla, Ladislav; Marčiš, Peter; Popa, Ionel; Sedmák, Róbert; Sedmáková, Denisa; Sitko, Roman; Šebeň, Vladimír; Štěpánek, Petr; Büntgen, Ulf

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141794

Cited by 61 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…For PCAB high, this switch of the dominant climatic driver of EGRs during the 2000s was the first such occurrence since 1901. This means that summer drought‐driven EGRs recently become important across the entire elevation range of PCAB, which conforms to already reported reactions of PCAB to recent extreme drought events such as 2003 (Hartl‐Meier et al, 2014) and increasing moisture limitation of spruce across elevation gradients (Bosela et al, 2021; Ponocná et al, 2016; Schurman et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Trends in climatically driven extreme growth reductions of Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris in Central Europe

Treml

Mašek

Tumajer

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Extreme tree growth reductions represent events of abrupt forest productivity decline and carbon sequestration reduction. An increase in their magnitude can represent an early warning signal of impending tree mortality. Yet the long‐term trends in extreme growth reductions remain largely unknown. We analyzed the trends in the proportion of trees exhibiting extreme growth reductions in two Central‐European conifer species—Pinus sylvestris (PISY) and Picea abies (PCAB)—between 1901 and 2018. We used a novel approach for extreme growth reduction quantification by relating their size to their mean recurrence interval. Twenty‐eight sites throughout Czechia and Slovakia with 1120 ring width series representing high‐ and low‐elevation forests were inspected for extreme growth reductions with recurrence intervals of 15 and 50 years along with their link to climatic drivers. Our results show the greatest growth reductions at low‐elevation PCAB sites, indicating high vulnerability of PCAB to drought. The proportions of trees exhibiting extreme growth reductions increased over time at low‐elevation PCAB, decreased recently following an abrupt increase in the 1970–1980s at high‐elevation PCAB, and showed nonsignificant trends in high‐ and low‐elevation PISY. Climatic drivers of extreme growth reductions, however, shifted over time for all site categories as the proportion of low‐temperature‐induced extreme growth reductions declined since the 1990s, whereas events caused by drought consistently increased in frequency during the same period. We observed higher growth volatility at the lower range of distribution compared with the upper range margin of PISY and PCAB. This will undoubtedly considerably impact tree growth and vitality as temperatures and incidence of drought in Central Europe are expected to further increase with ongoing climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Trends in climatically driven extreme growth reductions of Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris in Central Europe

Treml

Mašek

Tumajer

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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“…Predicted R. pseudoacacia range expansion raises the question of whether this non‐native species can be considered as an alternative to European, drought‐sensitive species, mainly Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies (Bosela et al, 2020; Li et al, 2018; Thurm et al, 2018; Walthert et al, 2020). R. pseudoacacia is cultivated as a multipurpose tree (e.g., timber and energy production, amelioration, and reclamation of severely disturbed sites, honey, forage, and ornamental reasons; Nicolescu et al, 2018; Vítková et al, 2020); therefore a future increased interest in its cultivation can be expected, especially in Central and Northern European regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacaciaL.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate

Puchałka

Dyderski

Vítková

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

103

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Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non‐native species in Europe. It is a fast‐growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models.

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“…Our results showed that higher temperatures are linked to greater tree growth rates, lower probabilities of mortality and greater probabilities of ingrowth. Positive effects of temperature on tree growth rates have been previously reported for these species in central Europe ( Čavlović et al, 2015;Mina et al, 2018b), although climate warming is recently inducing growth decline in some areas of their distribution range (Gazol et al, 2015;Knutzen et al, 2017;Bosela et al 2021). Temperature effects on mortality seem to be more dependent on site water conditions (Etzold et al, 2019;Pretzsch et al, 2020a).…”

Section: Temperature and Competition Effects On Species Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 70%

Temperature effect on size distributions in spruce-fir-beech mixed stands across Europe

Condés

Rı́o

Forrester

et al. 2022

Forest Ecology and Management

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Forest composed of Picea abies L., Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L. cover a large area in the European mountain regions and have a high ecological and socio-economic importance as they supply many ecosystems services. Because of climate change, these forests are exposed to warming, and this effect increases with elevation, which may impact their delivery of goods and services. Previous studies did not find significant changes in the overall productivity of these species over the last 30 years, but they observed changes in species competitiveness at the species and tree levels.In this study, we aimed to link previous results on tree, species and stand level growth in spruce-fir-beech mixed mountain forests by analysing species size distribution dynamics under different climate conditions and their effect on stand growth. We developed a matrix model based on data from 76 long-term experimental plots distributed throughout Europe. We used the change in stand basal area to explore whether temperature modifies species size dominances and proportions, whether the temperature effects on changes in species basal area depend on species size dominance, and whether the effect of species size dominance on changes in the stand basal area varies with temperature.Our results showed that annual mean temperature is an important climatic driver of species dynamics in spruce-fir-beech mixed mountain forests, such that stand basal area growth was favored by higher temperatures, particularly due to positive responses of silver fir which were greater than negative effects of temperature on European beech. The high temperatures also favored the size-dominance of silver fir, while European beech tended to have smaller diameters, independent of the temperature. We also found that the identity of the sizedominant species also influenced changes in stand basal area, with the highest or the lowest changes when Norway spruce and European beech were the size-dominant species, respectively. Silver fir was less influenced by the identity of the size-dominant species than by temperature.

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Climate warming induced synchronous growth decline in Norway spruce populations across biogeographical gradients since 2000

Cited by 61 publications

References 77 publications

Trends in climatically driven extreme growth reductions of Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris in Central Europe

Trends in climatically driven extreme growth reductions of Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris in Central Europe

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacaciaL.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate

Temperature effect on size distributions in spruce-fir-beech mixed stands across Europe

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