Climatic Causes of Plant Flowering Time Displacement in the Central Forest Reserve

Abstract

Meteorological series and phenological data in the framework of our environmental monitoring in the South taiga Central Forest Reserve were analyzed. During 1984– 2017, the average annual air temperature was 4.63±0.41°C, and the average annual rainfall was 2.14±0.12 mm/day. For eight of the 43 (19%) climatic parameters, reliable linear trends of variability were found: an increase of air temperature in July, August, September, and December; an increase of soil temperature in December; an increase of precipitation in November and December; and a decrease of precipitation in September. Three causes of their directed long-term changes were revealed, namely: a shift of the winter timing, violation of the annual dynamics of climatic parameters and a change in the precipitation type during a longer autumn – snow to be replaced by rain. Of the 11 species of vascular plants, the statistical significance of the long-term displacement of phenological dates was proven for Anemone nemorosa: the longer the autumn and softer the beginning of the winter, the earlier the onset of its flowering. Two classification types of vascular plants in identifying interspecific synchrony in the phenological events variation were considered. Variability components of phenological phenomena occurrence was estimated: the share of long-term trends of the shift in phenological dates timing due to changes in reserve climatic system is from 20 to 68% of the total sign dispersion; interannual climatic fluctuations explain 5–34% of its variability; and the proportion of variability under unaccounted factors influence is high (21–64%). Species with a high proportion of their long-term variability components (Anemone nemorosa: more than 60%) are recommended to use as indicators of climate change under the conditions of the study area.

Vascular plant occurrences in grasslands of Central Forest Nature Reserve (Russia): a dataset

“…The flora and phenology of the Central Forest Reserve were actively studied ( Minayev and Konechnaya 1976 , Konechnaya 2012 , Shuyskaya 2018 , Zorina et al 2020 ), but the works describing the vegetation of the Reserve predominantly focused on the forests and the raised bogs ( Karpov 1983 , Kurayeva et al 1999 , Minaeva et al 2007 , Minaeva 2010 , Korablev et al 2018 ). Therefore, there are few publications concerning the grassland vegetation of the Reserve ( Elumeeva et al 2017 , Cherednichenko and Borodulina 2018 , Cherednichenko et al 2021 , Elumeeva et al 2017 Elumeeva et al 2021 ).…”

Reasons of time shifting of animals’ seasonal events in the Central Forest Biosphere Reserve

“…Значимое смещение исследованных феноявлений у животных характеризуются высокой долей многолетней компоненты изменчивости, что обусловлено отклонениями в климатической системе заповедника и в свою очередь вызвано изменениями климатических параметров на глобальном уровне [25]. Следующие признаки биологических видов рекомендуется использовать в качестве индикаторов климатических изменений: первая встреча бабочки-крапивницы, первые укусы комаров-кусак, первое появление лягушки травяной и ящерицы живородящей (табл.…”