Climatic patterns in the establishment of wintering areas by North American migratory birds

Abstract

Long‐distance migration in birds is relatively well studied in nature; however, one aspect of this phenomenon that remains poorly understood is the pattern of distribution presented by species during arrival to and establishment of wintering areas. Some studies suggest that the selection of areas in winter is somehow determined by climate, given its influence on both the distribution of bird species and their resources. We analyzed whether different migrant passerine species of North America present climatic preferences during arrival to and departure from their wintering areas. We used ecological niche modeling to generate monthly potential climatic distributions for 13 migratory bird species during the winter season by combining the locations recorded per month with four environmental layers. We calculated monthly coefficients of climate variation and then compared two GLM (generalized linear models), evaluated with the AIC (Akaike information criterion), to describe how these coefficients varied over the course of the season, as a measure of the patterns of establishment in the wintering areas. For 11 species, the sites show nonlinear patterns of variation in climatic preferences, with low coefficients of variation at the beginning and end of the season and higher values found in the intermediate months. The remaining two species analyzed showed a different climatic pattern of selective establishment of wintering areas, probably due to taxonomic discrepancy, which would affect their modeled winter distribution. Patterns of establishment of wintering areas in the species showed a climatic preference at the macroscale, suggesting that individuals of several species actively select wintering areas that meet specific climatic conditions. This probably gives them an advantage over the winter and during the return to breeding areas. As these areas become full of migrants, alternative suboptimal sites are occupied. Nonrandom winter area selection may also have consequences for the conservation of migratory bird species, particularly under a scenario of climate change.

Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

“…In this study, average winter temperature and precipitation have remained consistent at the shifting annual COA for most species. Climate conditions as a whole appear to be an important factor for wintering locations for migratory birds (Pérez‐Moreno, Martínez‐Meyer, Soberón Mainero, & Rojas‐Soto, ; Somveille, Rodrigues, & Manica, ). Despite northward shifts in winter COAs, we did not detect many instances where temperature was significantly changing at these shifting annual COAs.…”

Avian SDMs: current state, challenges, and opportunities

“…A subtle case of niche switching is represented by species that change habitat and/or breeding site within the same season, mostly from one brood to the subsequent one(s) (Brambilla and Rubolini 2009). Such a switch may occur on local or regional scales (Powell and Frasch 2000, Gilroy et al 2010, Brambilla and Pedrini 2011, to large Nakazawa et al 2004 following, switching, mixed 21 Nearctic-Neotropical migrants majority: niche following Papeş et al 2011 (presumed) following Procnias tricarunculatus tropical study area Pérez-Moreno et al 2016 following, switching, mixed 13 Nearctic-Neotropical migrants intra-seasonal changes considered Williams et al 2017 switching Cuculus canorus temporally explicit SDMs, presence data from satellite tracking (e.g. continental) scales (Rohwer et al 2009).…”

A first approach to evaluate the vulnerability of islands’ vertebrates to climate change in Mexico

“…From this list, that includes all terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians), there are 10 species not recognized by GBIF.org (2017) and other six that do not have any geographic record (Appendix I). Most bird species that have been registered in Mexican islands are migratory (Appendix I), which represents a more complex system to model (Pérez-Moreno et al, 2016); however, we encourage future assessments with a specific type of analysis.…”