Climatic shocks and internal migration - Evidence from 442 million personal records in 64 countries

Abel, Guy J.; Muttarak, Raya; Stephany, Fabian

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3943281

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…This phenomenon has been documented extensively, including in relation to flooding (Chen et al, 2017; Chen & Mueller, 2019; Ocello et al, 2015), storms (Pajaron & Vasquez, 2020; Robalino et al, 2015), drought (Quiñones et al, 2021), and temperature and precipitation fluctuations (Beine & Parsons, 2017; Nawrotzki & Bakhtsiyarava, 2017; Nguyen, 2021). In addition, in some cases, excess rainfall may beneficially affect agricultural production and related labor needs, employment, and income, thus reducing migration pressures (Call & Gray, 2020; Mueller et al, 2020; Nguyen, 2021), while in other contexts higher rainfall has been found to increase household income and thus provide resources to support migration (Abel et al, 2022; Cottier & Salehyan, 2021).…”

Section: Short‐term Shocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

Daoust,

Selby

2024

WIREs Climate Change

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This article presents a new interpretive framework for understanding the implications of climate change for migration, and reviews and reflects on existing evidence and research gaps in light of this framework. Most existing climate‐migration research is heavily environment‐centric, even when acknowledging the importance of contextual or intervening factors. In contrast, the framework proposed here considers five different pathways through which climate change is affecting, or might affect, migration: short‐term shocks, long‐term climatic and related changes, environmental “pull” factors, climate adaptation and mitigation measures, and perceptions and narratives. In reviewing the existing evidence relating to each of these pathways, the paper finds among other things that short‐term shocks may simultaneously increase and reduce migration; that the evidence on long‐term trends provides a weak basis for understanding future dynamics; and that more attention needs to be paid to the other three pathways, by researchers and policymakers alike. Overall, the proposed framework and associated evidence review suggest a different and broader understanding of the migration implications of climate change from that outlined in the IPCC's most recent assessment, or in many existing reviews.This article is categorized under: Climate and Development Knowledge and Action in Development

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Section: Short‐term Shocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

Daoust,

Selby

2024

WIREs Climate Change

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“…The IMAGE project provides internal migration data from a number of countries (Bell et al, 2020) but has yet to be fully explored by the research community. The IPUMS International data repository contains a number of variables related to migration from census data from over 60 countries (Ruggles et al, 2003) that have begun to be utilized for studying internal migration patterns in relation to climate events (Thiede et al, 2016;Mueller et al, 2020;Abel et al, 2021). Improved access to internal flow data would provide an extremely valuable resource for future climate mobility modeling.…”

Section: Moving Beyond Current Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling climate migration: dead ends and new avenues

Beyer,

Schewe,

Abel

2023

Front. Clim.

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Understanding and forecasting human mobility in response to climatic and environmental changes has become a subject of substantial political, societal, and academic interest. Quantitative models exploring the relationship between climatic factors and migration patterns have been developed since the early 2000s; however, different models have produced results that are not always consistent with one another or robust enough to provide actionable insights into future dynamics. Here we examine weaknesses of classical methods and identify next-generation approaches with the potential to close existing knowledge gaps. We propose six priorities for the future of climate mobility modeling: (i) the use of non-linear machine-learning rather than linear methods, (ii) the prioritization of explaining the observed data rather than testing statistical significance of predictors, (iii) the consideration of relevant climate impacts rather than temperature- and precipitation-based metrics, (iv) the examination of heterogeneities, including across space and demographic groups rather than aggregated measures, (v) the investigation of temporal migration dynamics rather than essentially spatial patterns, (vi) the use of better calibration data, including disaggregated and within-country flows. Improving both methods and data to accommodate the high complexity and context-specificity of climate mobility will be crucial for establishing the scientific consensus on historical trends and future projections that has eluded the discipline thus far.

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“…Research on climate migration has thus far yielded a number of general ndings and predictions. One, climatic uctuations lead to migration mainly when interacting with contextual factors such as preexisting vulnerabilities and a history of migration (Abel et al 2022; Dandy et al 2019). Resource-dependent societies are thus some of the most prone to climate migration (Barnett and Adger 2018; Murray-Tortarolo and Salgado 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From risk reduction to a landscape of (un)desired outcomes: Climate migrants’ perceptions of migration success and failure

Tubi

Israeli

2023

Popul Environ

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Migration is increasingly viewed an adaptation strategy. Much of the migration-as-adaptation research applies a climate risk analytical lens, examining to what extent migration is a successful/adaptive response that reduces vulnerability or a failed/maladaptive response that increases vulnerability. However, this body of research has largely failed to examine migration outcomes through the eyes of those who migrate, thereby yielding insights that are potentially disconnected from their realities and desirable futures. To address this gap, this study focuses on the case of drought-in uenced migration from agro-pastoralist northern Kenya to the City of Nairobi. Applying a thematic analysis based on semi-structured interviews with 38 long-term migrants, we examine how migrants perceive 'success' and 'failure' in the context of migration as a response to the impacts of drought.The ndings show that migrants' success perceptions focus on the improvement of their families' economic security, namely ful lling their basic needs and reconstructing households' livelihood sources. Another related objective -supporting children's education -was often perceived as a means to shift the next generation out of agro-pastoralism, a perception that evolved in light of migrants' experiences in Nairobi. A similar failure theme pertains to migrants' inability to support their families. However, another predominant theme emphasizes self-failure, mainly as cultural assimilation in Nairobi. Associated with substance abuse and emotional disconnection from the north, assimilation was perceived as a potential trigger of cascading failures, including migrants' inability to achieve their adaptation-related objectives. As these ndings show, success and failure perceptions, including adaptation-related, are mediated by social-cultural factors and are intertwined with migrants' broader concerns and aspirations. As such concerns and aspirations may shape migrants' and households' vulnerability trajectories, research must shift from framing migration narrowly as a climate risk reduction strategy, to conceptualizing it as a process of navigating a landscape of desired and undesired outcomes.

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Climatic shocks and internal migration - Evidence from 442 million personal records in 64 countries

Abstract: Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,

Cited by 6 publications

References 58 publications

Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

Modeling climate migration: dead ends and new avenues

From risk reduction to a landscape of (un)desired outcomes: Climate migrants’ perceptions of migration success and failure

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