Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

Xie, Lian; Tan, Yan Fei; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.; Morrison, John M.; Karl, Thomas R.

doi:10.1175/jcli3560.1

Cited by 98 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…There is an extensive body of literature relating ENSO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) oscillations with the tropical cyclone activity and tracks in the North Atlantic. As explained by Colbert and Soden (2012 ), numerous studies have found a decrease in both basin wide and landfalling storms in the Atlantic during El Niño years (Bove et al 1998;Xie et al 2005;Kossin et al 2010). Changes in tropical cyclone tracks associated with the phase of the NAO have also been identified.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

et al. 2017

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Analysis of 20-year time series of water levels in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has revealed that meteotsunamis are ubiquitous in this region. On average, 1-3 meteotsunamis with wave heights [0.5 m occur each year in this area. The probability of meteotsunami occurrence is highest during March-April and June-August. Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico can be triggered by winter and summer extra-tropical storms and by tropical cyclones. In northwestern Florida most of the events are triggered by winter storms, while in west and southwest Florida they appear both in winter and summer. Atmospheric pressure and wind anomalies (periods \6 h) associated with the passage of squalls originated the majority of the observed meteotsunami events. The most intense meteotsunamigenic periods took place during El Niño periods

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

et al. 2017

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“…The composites are constructed similarly to those in Fig. 5, except that the track density function (Xie et al 2005) is shown to facilitate comparison and significance testing. The RWBw-associated variability of TC tracks closely resembles the variability associated with RWBFreq (not shown).…”

Section: A Correlation and Composite Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous investigations of the extratropical impacts on Atlantic TC activity have mostly focused on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Elsner 2003;Xie et al 2005;Sabbatelli and Mann 2007;Kossin et al 2010;Villarini et al 2010;Colbert and Soden 2012;Kozar et al 2012). The NAO is associated with the variability of the midlatitude jet and a meridional seesaw in sea level pressure (SLP) over the extratropical North Atlantic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics and Impacts of Extratropical Rossby Wave Breaking during the Atlantic Hurricane Season

et al. 2017

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This study investigates the characteristics of extratropical Rossby wave breaking (RWB) during the Atlantic hurricane season and its impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It was found that RWB perturbs the wind and moisture fields throughout the troposphere in the vicinity of a breaking wave. When RWB occurs more frequently over the North Atlantic, the Atlantic main development region (MDR) is subject to stronger vertical wind shear and reduced tropospheric moisture; the basinwide TC counts are reduced, and TCs are generally less intense, have a shorter lifetime, and are less likely to make landfalls. A significant negative correlation was found between Atlantic TC activity and RWB occurrence during 1979-2013. The correlation is comparable to that with the MDR SST index and stronger than that with the Niño-3.4 index. Further analyses suggest that the variability of RWB occurrence in the western Atlantic is largely independent of that in the eastern Atlantic. The RWB occurrence in the western basin is more closely tied to the environmental variability of the tropical North Atlantic and is more likely to hinder TC intensification or reduce the TC lifetime because of its proximity to the central portion of TC tracks. Consequently, the basinwide TC counts and the accumulated cyclone energy have a strong correlation with western-basin RWB occurrence but only a moderate correlation with eastern-basin RWB occurrence. The results highlight the extratropical impacts on Atlantic TC activity and regional climate via RWB and provide new insights into the variability and predictability of TC activity.

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“…One explanation for this result is that since the mid-1960s, satellite images have helped in the identification of the origins of TCs in the central and eastern Atlantic [55,56]. However, previous research suggests that Atlantic Basin TC tracks do tend to cluster and shift over time [54,[57][58][59][60] and evidence exists for TC activity shifting more towards the eastern Atlantic overall [56,61]. The finding that the point of origin for Irene-type TCs has shifted eastward and to lower latitude over time supports this previous research.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Track Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Six additional TCs in the current study formed west of and made landfall over Florida. Of the remaining 13 TCs, nine formed east of 60 • west longitude in the main development region for the Atlantic Basin [54]. When examining year of formation, six of seven Florida landfalls occurred during 1858-1907, while five of six landfalls over The Bahamas occurred during 1960-2011.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Track Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the Spatial Patterns of Rainfall and Atmospheric Moisture among Tropical Cyclones Having a Track Similar to Hurricane Irene (2011)

Matyas

2017

Atmosphere

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Irene was the most destructive tropical cyclone (TC) of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season due to flooding from rainfall. This study used a Geographic Information System to identify TCs with similar tracks and examine the spatial attributes of their rainfall patterns. Storm-total rainfall was calculated from the Unified Precipitation Dataset for 11 post-1948 storms and statistics corresponding to the top 10% of rainfall values left of track were computed. Irene-type tracks occur every 6.6 years. Floyd (1999) produced the highest rainfall overall and was the closest analog to Irene, yet Irene produced more rainfall in the northeastern U.S. where higher values of precipitable water existed. Areas of high rainfall expanded as five TCs moved north due to synoptic-scale forcing during extratropical transition. However, Irene and three other TCs did not exhibit this pattern. The amount of moisture in the environment surrounding the TC, rather than storm speed or intensity, exhibited the strongest correlations with rainfall totals and their spatial distribution. These results demonstrate the high variability that exists in the production of rainfall among TCs experiencing similar steering flow, and show that advection of moisture from the tropics is key to higher rainfall totals in the mid-latitudes.

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Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

Cited by 98 publications

References 33 publications

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Characteristics and Impacts of Extratropical Rossby Wave Breaking during the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Comparing the Spatial Patterns of Rainfall and Atmospheric Moisture among Tropical Cyclones Having a Track Similar to Hurricane Irene (2011)

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