Climatology and trend analysis (1987–2016) of fire weather in the <scp>Euro‐Mediterranean</scp>

Giannaros, Theodore M.; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos

doi:10.1002/joc.6701

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Moreover Bedia et al (2014); Amatulli et al (2013) estimated the future fire danger using the FWI for several countries bordering the Mediterranean and found out that there is a strong correlation of the index with burnt area for the Mediterenean region, whereas that correlation is weaker when individual countries were examined. Giannaros et al (2021) used the number of days with FWI > 30 as an index for the assessment of fire weather extremes in the Euro-Mediterranean. Focusing on Greece Karali et al (2014) have correlated the number of fires with the FWI in order to determine the fire-related, region-specific thresholds for the FWI.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece

Rovithakis

Grillakis

Seiradakis

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are expected to change, contributing to longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity will likely increase. In the present study, the changes in future fire danger conditions are assessed for the different regions of Greece using the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). Gridded future climate output as estimated from three regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment are utilized. We use three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a middle-of-the-road scenario (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Based on established critical fire FWI threshold values for Greece, the future change in days with critical fire danger were calculated for different areas of Greece domains. The results show that fire danger is expected to progressively increase in the future especially in the high-end climate change scenario with southern and eastern regions of Greece expected to have up to 40 additional days of high fire danger relative to the late 20th century, on average. Crete, the Aegean Islands, the Attica region, as well as parts of Peloponnese are predicted to experience a stronger increase in fire danger.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece

Rovithakis

Grillakis

Seiradakis

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Natural hazards drive major damages to communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems across the globe. Recent European floods (Cornwall, 2021), droughts in South Africa (Pascale et al., 2020), and wildfires (for example in the United States (Swain, 2021) and Euro‐Mediterranean region (Giannaros et al., 2021)) highlight how human and natural systems are exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards. Between 2000 and 2019, natural hazard‐related disasters caused over one million deaths worldwide and over two trillion U.S. dollars in global economic losses (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Hazards Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

Sharma

Dahal

Nava

et al. 2022

Earth and Space Science

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This article is about the state of ICON principles Goldman et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO153180 in natural hazards and a discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Natural hazards pose risks to society, infrastructure, and the environment. Hazard interactions and their cascading phenomena in space and time can further intensify the impacts. Natural hazards’ risks are expected to increase in the future due to environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate risks to inform the design and implementation of risk mitigation and adaptation strategies. Multihazard multisector risk management poses several nontrivial challenges, including: (a) integrated risk assessment, (b) Earth system data‐model fusion, (c) uncertainty quantification and communication, and (d) crossing traditional disciplinary boundaries. Here, we review these challenges, highlight current research and operational endeavors, and underscore diverse research opportunities. We emphasize the need for integrated approaches, coordinated processes, open science, and networked efforts (ICON) for multihazard multisector risk management.

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“…Investigation of the spatiotemporal variability of fire weather conditions over the last decades in the Euro-Mediterranean area has attracted many researchers' interest (among others, [8][9][10][11]). For example, Giannaros et al [11] has recently provided a spatiotemporal mapping of fire weather conditions in Europe and the Mediterranean, aiming to investigate potential long-term trends of fire weather conditions (period 1987-2016). The authors reported an increasing occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions over the Iberian Peninsula and eastern Balkans, and decreasing trends over the southeast Mediterranean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using data for the last decade, namely number of wildfires (including burnt areas) provided by the Fire Services of the participating countries and daily values of CFWI calculated from available meteorological data (mainly model derived re-analyses, detailed also in [11]), the CFWI thresholds for fire danger that are more appropriate to the fire environment of the three countries are being revisited. For the case of Bulgaria, a complex approach to fire danger assessment based on the use of fire weather indices considering the fuel dryness and the soil moisture deficit has also been explored.…”

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confidence: 99%

DISARM Early Warning System for Wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean

et al. 2020

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This paper discusses the main achievements of DISARM (Drought and fIre ObServatory and eArly waRning system) project, which developed an early warning system for wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean. The four pillars of this system include (i) forecasting wildfire danger, (ii) detecting wildfires with remote sensing techniques, (iii) forecasting wildfire spread with a coupled weather-fire modeling system, and (iv) assessing the wildfire risk in the frame of climate change. Special emphasis is given to the innovative and replicable parts of the system. It is shown that for the effective use of fire weather forecasting in different geographical areas and in order to account for the local climate conditions, a proper adjustment of the wildfire danger classification is necessary. Additionally, the consideration of vegetation dryness may provide better estimates of wildfire danger. Our study also highlights some deficiencies of both EUMETSAT (Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) and LSA-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis) algorithms in their skill to detect wildfires over islands and near the coastline. To tackle this issue, a relevant modification is proposed. Furthermore, it is shown that IRIS, the coupled atmosphere-fire modeling system developed in the frame of DISARM, has proven to be a valuable supporting tool in fire suppression actions. Finally, assessment of the wildfire danger in the future climate provides the necessary context for the development of regional adaptation strategies to climate change.

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Climatology and trend analysis (1987–2016) of fire weather in the Euro‐Mediterranean

Cited by 20 publications

References 77 publications

Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece

Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece

Natural Hazards Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

DISARM Early Warning System for Wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean

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