Climatology of Clear-Air Turbulence in Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere using ERA5 reanalysis data

Abstract

Spatial and temporal distributions of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) in the Northern Hemisphere were investigated using 41 years (1979 -2019) of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) data. We used two groups of CAT diagnostics to determine occurrence frequencies: 1) commonly used empirical turbulence indices (TI1, TI2, and TI3) and their components [vertical wind shear (VWS), deformation, divergence, and divergence tendency], and 2) theoretical instability indicators Richardson number (Ri), potential vorticity (PV), and Brunt-Vӓisӓlӓ frequency. The empirical indices showed high frequencies of MOG-level CAT potential over the East Asian, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Atlantic regions in winter. Over East Asia, the entrance region of the strong upper-level jets, showed the highest frequencies in TI1, TI2, and TI3 mainly due to strong VWS. The Eastern Pacific and Northwestern Atlantic areas near the exit region of the jet had relatively high frequencies of these and also Ri. PV frequency was high on the southern side of the jet primarily due to negative relative vorticity. Long-term increasing trends of MOG-level CAT potential also appeared in those three regions mainly due to the warming in lower latitudes. The most significant increasing trend was found over East Asia, due to the strengthening of the East Asian jet and VWS due to the strong meridional temperature gradients in the mid-troposphere induced by warming in the tropics and cooling in eastern Eurasia. These trends over East Asia are expected to be of importance to efficient aviation operations across the northwestern Pacific Ocean.