Aims
To determine whether the CHA2DS2-VASc score can predict adverse outcomes such as death, ischemic stroke, and major hemorrhage, in patients with systolic heart failure in sinus rhythm.
Methods and Results
CHA2DS2-VASc scores were calculated for 1,101 patients randomized to warfarin and 1,123 patients randomized to aspirin. Adverse outcomes were defined as death or ischemic stroke, death alone, ischemic stroke alone, and major hemorrhage. Using proportional hazards models, we found that each 1-point increase in the CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with increased hazard of death or ischemic stroke events (hazard ratio [HR] for the warfarin arm = 1.21 [1.13–1.30], p<0.001; for aspirin, HR = 1.20 [1.11–1.29], p<0.001). Similar increased hazards for higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores were observed for death alone, ischemic stroke alone, and major hemorrhage. Overall performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was assessed using c-statistics for full models containing the risk score, treatment assignment, and score-treatment interaction, with the c-statistics for the full models ranging from 0.57 for death to 0.68 for major hemorrhage.
Conclusions
The CHA2DS2-VASc score predicted adverse outcomes in patients with systolic HF in sinus rhythm, with modest prediction accuracy.