Background and Objectives:No consensus exists on adequate surveillance of conservatively managed unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs). We aimed to determine optimal MRI surveillance strategies for growth of UIAs using cost-effectiveness analysis. A secondary aim was to develop a clinical tool for personalizing UIA surveillance.Methods:We designed a microsimulation model from a health care perspective simulating 100,000 55-year old women to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a lifetime horizon in the US, UK, and the Netherlands, using literature-derived model parameters. Country-specific costs and willingness-to-pay thresholds ($100,000/QALY for the US, £30,000/QALY for the UK, and €80,000/QALY for the Netherlands) were used. Lifetime costs and QALYs were annually discounted at 3% for the US, 3.5% for the UK, or 4% (costs) and 1.5% (QALYs) for the Netherlands. Strategies were: no follow-up surveillance, follow-up with MRI in the 1st and 5th year after UIA discovery, every 5 years, every 2 years, or annually, or immediate intervention (i.e., clipping or coiling). Using the microsimulation model, we developed a tool for personalizing UIA surveillance for men and women, with different ages and varying aneurysm characteristics. Uncertainty in the input parameters was modeled with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results:Among 55-year old women, 2,222 individuals in the US, 1,910 in the UK, and 2,040 in the Netherlands needed to undergo an annual MRI scan to prevent one case of subarachnoid hemorrhage per year. No surveillance MRI was most cost-effective in the US (in 47% of the simulations) and UK (in 54% of simulations), whereas annual MRI was most cost-effective in the Netherlands (in 53% of simulations). In the US and UK, annual surveillance or surveillance in the 1st and 5th year after discovery was cost-effective in patients <60 years and at increased risk of aneurysm growth. The optimal, personalized, surveillance strategies were summarized in a look-up table for use in clinical practice.Conclusion:Generally, US and UK physicians should refrain from assigning patients, particularly older patients and those with few risk factors for aneurysm growth or rupture, to frequent MRI surveillance. In the Netherlands, annual follow-up is generally most cost-effective.