Clinical prediction in group psychotherapy

Abstract

Prior research in individual therapy has provided evidence that therapists are poor predictors of client outcome and often misjudge clients' perceptions of the therapeutic relationship. The focus of the current research was to conduct a similar predictive study in a group setting. Group therapists were recruited from a university counseling center and a state psychiatric hospital; 64 group members and 10 group leaders participated in the study. We tested therapist accuracy in predicting client outcome and perceived quality of therapeutic relationship. Results suggested that therapists underestimate the number of clients who deteriorate during therapy and were unable to accurately predict client perceptions of the group relationship, replicating findings from larger samples in the individual literature. Results suggest that using outcome and process measures as feedback tools may be also useful for clinicians leading groups.

The validity of the Group Questionnaire: Construct clarity or construct drift?

“…Given the strong correlation (r = .25) between the thera peutic relationship and outcome (Burlingame,McClendon,& Alonso,201 la,201 lb) and lead ers' inability to accurately predict how thengroup members perceive the therapeutic rela tionship (Chapman et al, 2012), we believe there is ample empirical evidence to suggest systematic use of measure-based feedback sys tems to improve the outcomes of group treat ment . However, an important step in making establishing the valid ity of such a system would be to test for differences in normative values on the GQ by clinical setting.…”

The Partners for Change Outcome Management System: A Both/And System for Collaborative Practice

“…The need for SCF is based on findings that many clients quit therapy prematurely (Swift & Greenberg, 2012) or have negative outcomes (Reese, Duncan, Bohanske, Owen, & Minami, 2014). Moreover, clinicians are overly optimistic about their effectiveness (Walfish, McAlister, O'Donnell, & Lambert, 2012) and are unable to predict which clients are likely to do poorly (Chapman et al, 2012). SCF systems aim to identify treatment failures before they occur, allowing time for clinicians to restore therapy to a positive trajectory.…”

Personality Disorder in Childhood and Adolescence comes of Age: a Review of the Current Evidence and Prospects for Future Research

“…Data from an RCT study of CAT for PD in adults have also demonstrated that TAU can act as a "nocebo" condition in which harmful effects arise from a placebo treatment (161,229,230). Furthermore, studies have demonstrated that therapists are not good at predicting patients' outcomes or at determining patients' perceptions of the quality of the therapeutic relationship or of group relationships; the therapists tend to underestimate the number of patients who are deteriorating during therapy (231)(232)(233). Research has also consistently demonstrated that the therapeutic alliance is one of the most consistent and robust predictors of therapeutic outcome (234,235) and that it is therapist variability-rather than patient variability-that brings about most of this allianceoutcome association (234,236).…”