Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment

Abstract

Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making—the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

Human Strategies for Multitasking, Search, and Control Improved via Real-Time Memory Aid for Gaze Location

“…For more abstract or complex tasks, proceduralization is a term used to define systematic externalized systems for improving decision making (Bazerman, 1998), often with computer assistance (Dawes et al, 1989), which our system does. Computerized displays to assist users in decision making are often domainspecific expert systems (Shortliffe, 1983;Chignell and Peterson, 1988;Schkade and Kleinmuntz, 1994;Stone et al, 1997), whereas our system is domain-general.…”

Trust Me I’M A Doctor…. Working towards a Healthy Prescriptive Consent According to Decision Theory

“…It must be noted that individual patients, rare events and interpretation of patient utility function are not included in statistical methods. Clinicians, therefore, often find exception to actuarial conclusions [22] that cannot compensate for "pattern recognition" focussed by specialisation which in itself constrains cognition [23]. The problem with medical decisions is that the consultant rarely gets immediate feedback about the criteria he or she used in making the judgements.…”

“…It is assumed the clinician uses both but if the clinical and actuarial facts do not agree a choice must be made. Research has shown that clinical choices are not as accurate as actuarial evaluation of outcome [22]. It must be noted that individual patients, rare events and interpretation of patient utility function are not included in statistical methods.…”

“…The consultant surgeon relies on two contrasting approaches to decision making, namely a clinical or example based decision or actuarial approach founded empirical data [22]. It is assumed the clinician uses both but if the clinical and actuarial facts do not agree a choice must be made.…”

Practical Impact of Predictor Reliability for Personnel Selection Decisions

“…Research has consistently demonstrated that actuarial models (e.g., regression or other reasonable mechanical combinations of data) tend consistently to outperform expert judgment in the prediction of human behavior (Dawes, Faust, & Meehl, 1989;Grove & Meehl, 1996;Highhouse, 2008).…”