Clinico-Epidemiological Algorithm for Predicting Systemic Arterial Hypertension at High Altitude Through Mathematical Modelling

Abstract

A population based hybrid design combining element ofcohort and cross-sectional approach was used to develop a simple clinical algorithm to predict individual probability of developing hypertension (systolic BP > 140 mm lis and lor diastolic BP > 90 mmHg). 3615 soldiel'5 initially normotensive at the time of induction into high altitude, were studied by systematic random sampling. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed a high significant association between hypertension and age, body mass index (BMI), tobac:c:o smoking and alcohol consumption. Using the constant/coefficient values obtained from the logistic model and the receiver operating charaderistic:s (ROC) curve analysis, the following predictive rule was developed -"To the agein yean, add (BMix 3.86); also add 5.53 if he is a smoker; and add 19.81 ifhe consumes alcohol. Ifthe total exceeds 143, the individual is at high risk ofdeveloping hypertension. This algorithm carries a sensitivity of68.3% and specificity of 78.5%. ; 50: 175-180 MJAFll994

Developing an Operational Decision Rule for Identifying the Fatal Case Documents at Risk of Being Returned Through Mathematical Modelling

“…The mathematical model was "developed using statistical procedures which have already been validated in a large scale study in Armed Forces [2]. The outcome variable was kept on a binary dichotomous variable (documents returned/not returned).…”

Flexometallic Endotracheal Tube and Nasal Intubation

“…The authors' contention that "The mathematical model was developed using statistical procedures which have already been validated in a large scale study in Armed Forces", has to be accepted with caution because the basis used to develop a model validated under one set of conditions may not be valid under another set of conditions. In fact the authors have quoted a model used to predict hypertension at high altitude which has no relation whatsoever to fatal case documents [2].…”

Mathematical Modelling-Utility in the Fatal Case Documents

“…In fact the authors have quoted a model used to predict hypertension at high altitude which has no relation whatsoever to fatal case documents [2].…”