Clinicopathological features, prognostic factors, and prognostic survival prediction in patients with extrahepatic bile duct cancer liver metastasis

Abstract

Purpose Extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EBDC) is a compound malignant tumor mainly consisting of extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma. Most EBDC patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage characterized by distant metastases, and the liver is one of the common sites of metastasis. Hence, the purpose of this study is to investigate the clinicopathological features, identify prognostic risk factors, and assess the long-term prognosis of extrahepatic bile duct cancer liver metastasis (EBDCLM). Methods We identified 1922 eligible EBDCLM patients from the SEER database.Cox regression models were used to predict independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS),and Kaplan–Meier survival curves were drawn. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of multivariate Cox analysis, and the predictive effect of the nomogram was evaluated. Results Age, surgery, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, and lung metastasis were common independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS, and radiotherapy and bone metastasis were independent prognostic factors for CSS. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed a significant increase in survival for patients aged less than or equal to 70 years, undergoing surgery and chemotherapy, and without lung metastases. The results showed that the nomogram constructed by us had good predictability and ha d strong clinical application value. Conclusion Our study identified age, surgery, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, and lung metastasis as independent prognostic factors for EBDCLM patients. The nomogram can accurately predict the survival probability, which is helpful for clinicians to assess the prognosis of patients with advanced EBDC and provide personalized clinical decisions.