A fire in the cargo compartment has a major impact on civil aviation flight safety, and according to the airworthiness clause of the CCAR-25, the detector must sound an alarm within 1 min of a fire in the cargo compartment. As for the cargo compartment of large transport aircrafts, the internal space is high and open, and the smoke movement speed becomes slower with significant cooling in the process of diffusion. Hysteresis can occur in smoke detectors because of their internal labyrinth structure, which causes the detector’s internal and external response signals to be out of sync. This research employs a numerical simulation to examine the detector response parameters under an ambient wind speed of 0.1–0.2 m/s and fits a Cleary two-stage hysteresis model, where τ1= 0.09u−1.43 and τ2= 0.67u−1.59. Finally, multiple full-scale cargo cabin experiments were conducted to validate the prediction model. The results show that the model’s predicted alarm range is 43.1 s to 49.0 s, and the actual alarm time obtained by the experiment falls within this interval, confirming the model’s accuracy and providing theoretical support for the structural design and layout of the aircraft cargo cabin smoke detector.