Closed monitoring of Malaysia COVID-19 using SEIR compartmental model for first wave trajectory

Abstract

Malaysia COVID-19 trend trajectory has shown significant improvement since Malaysia employed Movement Control Order (MCO) on 18th Mar 2020. Since then a modified compartmental Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) model has been developed to monitor closely the development on the epidemic. The model introduced early detection factor in order to measure the reliability of the strategy carried out. The closed monitoring is to estimate the current projection of Reproduction Number (R0), a number which a single infected person could outspread the virus to other people, and to forecast in the near future of the number of active cases for several days. This is to show that the strategy carried out by the Malaysian government in order to contain the outbreak whether or not has taken into effect within the period of the first wave of the outbreak. The observation carried out has found out that under the Enhanced MCO (EMCO) or the second MCO showed significant reduction in the number of active cases as well as R0. Not only that the early detection strategy carried out has shown significant improvement of 2.5 to 3.6 times higher than the first MCO.