Closing the sea level rise budget with altimetry, Argo, and GRACE

Leuliette, E. W.; Miller, Laury

doi:10.1029/2008gl036010

Cited by 184 publications

(186 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…The Peltier [2009] value has previously been accepted by Cazenave et al [2009] as being required to achieve closure of the budget. Although Leuliette and Miller [2009] claim that they also achieve closure of the budget using a value for the GIA correction of À1.0 mm yr À1 , a value attributed to Paulson et al [2007], it will be clear that their own analysis would be markedly improved if they were to employ the ICE-5G(VM2) value for the GIA correction. The value of the mass rate correction over the oceans delivered by the Paulson et al model has been produced using the erroneous theory advocated in MW.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This significant misunderstanding has already had serious consequences. In the recent paper of Leuliette and Miller [2009], for example, they discuss the application of GRACE measurements to the sea level budget closure problem. They accept as a reasonable estimate for the GIA-related mass rate correction over the oceans, a value of À1.0 mm yr À1 which is approximately a factor of 2 smaller in magnitude than the value delivered by the ICE-5G (VM2) model listed here in Table 1 and discussed more fully by Peltier [2009].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the origins of Earth rotation anomalies: New insights on the basis of both “paleogeodetic” data and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data

2009

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The theory previously developed to predict the impact on Earth's rotational state of the late Pleistocene glaciation cycle is extended. In particular, we examine the extent to which a departure of the infinite time asymptote of the viscoelastic tidal Love number of degree 2, “k2T,” from the observed “fluid” Love number, “kf,” impacts the theory. A number of tests of the influence of the difference in these Love numbers on theoretical predictions of the model of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process are explored. Relative sea level history predictions are shown not to be sensitive to the difference even though they are highly sensitive to the influence of the changing rotational state itself. We also explore in detail the accuracy with which the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite system is able to observe the global GIA process including the time‐dependent amplitude of the degree 2 and order 1 spherical harmonic components of the gravitational field, the only components that are significantly influenced by rotational effects. It is explicitly shown that the GRACE observation of these properties of the time‐varying gravitational field is sufficiently accurate to rule out the values predicted by the ICE‐5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004). However, we also note that this model is constrained only by data from an epoch during which modern greenhouse gas induced melting of both the great polar ice‐sheets and small ice sheets and glaciers was not occurring. Such modern loss of grounded continental ice strongly influences the evolving rotational state of the planet and thus the values of the degree 2 and order 1 Stokes coefficients as they are currently being measured by the GRACE satellite system. A series of sensitivity tests are employed to demonstrate this fact. We suggest that the accuracy of scenarios for modern land ice melting may be tested by ensuring that such scenarios conform to the GRACE observations of these crucial time‐dependent Stokes coefficients.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the origins of Earth rotation anomalies: New insights on the basis of both “paleogeodetic” data and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data

2009

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“…Although comparison with tide gauges shows that an accuracy of 0.4 mm/yr should be attainable 22,23 , two of the above analyses 14,15 give estimates of 3.6 and 2.4 mm/yr respectively (both corrected for GIA in the same way). Much of this difference appears to result from the fact that the two fouryear periods of analysis are offset by 6 months, but it should not be forgotten that there is a continual need to check for errors in the various corrections which need to be applied to altimeter data.…”

Section: The Satellite Eramentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This has since been identified as a result of differing biases in instruments observing ocean temperature [9][10][11][12] , while geodetic constraints from observations of the Earth's dynamic oblateness, confirmed that this apparent cooling was not being offset by a large increase in melting land ice 13 . After applying corrections for these biases, several studies [14][15][16] have shown greatly improved consistency, in one case 14 finding a tightly-closed sea-level budget for interannual and seasonal cycles, but a significant imbalance of over 3 mm/yr in the trend. In the second case 15 , a smaller net imbalance of about 1 mm/yr was found (this is within the estimated error bars).…”

Section: The Satellite Eramentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After applying corrections for these biases, several studies [14][15][16] have shown greatly improved consistency, in one case 14 finding a tightly-closed sea-level budget for interannual and seasonal cycles, but a significant imbalance of over 3 mm/yr in the trend. In the second case 15 , a smaller net imbalance of about 1 mm/yr was found (this is within the estimated error bars). In the third study 16 GRACE data were used in two different ways, in one case using a larger geodetic correction over the oceans than in other studies, and in the other using it only to estimate Antarctic and Greenland mass loss, and combining with other datasets to estimate the total mass entering the ocean.…”

Section: The Satellite Eramentioning

confidence: 99%

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Identifying the causes of sea-level change

et al. 2009

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PrefaceGlobal mean sea-level rise has increased from a rate of a few centimetres per century over the past few millennia to a few decimetres per century in the past few decades. This ten fold increase in rate is due to climate change and is dominated by melting of land ice and warming of ocean water. The current warming trend is expected to continue and so global mean sea level will continue to rise. In this article, we review recent advances in our understanding of past sea-level changes on decadal to millennial timescales to consider how well future changes can be constrained. The majority of studies suggest that global mean sea-level rise will most likely be less than 1 m over the 21 st century. Importantly, there will be significant departures from the global mean by several decimetres in many areas. As a consequence, future research should be targeted at better constraining the spatial variability in future changes so that high-risk areas can be identified. IntroductionWith about 200 million people living within coastal floodplains and 2 million km 2 of land and $1 trillion worth of assets lying less than 1 m above current sea level, sea-level rise is one of the major socio-economic hazards associated with global warming 1 . The expected rate is, however, extremely uncertain. While the latest IPCC report 2 suggests a range of 0.18-0.59 m of sea-level rise between 1980-1999 and 2090-2099, it emphasises that the contribution from ice dynamic changes is highly uncertain and provides three "illustrative" scenarios suggesting a possible addition of up to 0.17 m from this source. Since then, several studies 3,4 have suggested that a rise larger than 1 m cannot be ruled out. Sea-level rates of this magnitude (m per century) are not uncommon in reconstructions of past sea-level change using geological evidence and it has recently been suggested that similar rates occurred during the previous interglacial warm period 120,000 years ago 5,6 when the volume of land ice was similar to that at present.A "headline" figure of 1 m during the 21 st century represents only the global average sealevel rise. Many different physical processes contribute to sea-level change (see Box 1) and none of these produce a spatially uniform signal. Indeed, one of the few statements that can be made with certainty is that future sea-level change will not be the same everywhere. Thus, the development of regional and local estimates of future sea-level rise -required for effective risk assessment -is one of the primary challenges for the coming years 2 . Prediction relies on models, and the veracity of model output is based on verification against historical and geological data.. However, interpretation of these data requires great care in light of the large spatial and temporal variability in sea-level change. In this article we summarise recent progress in understanding the variability in a suite of sea-level related observations at timescales ranging from decades to millennia. We conclude with an estimate of our current ability to predict...

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Sea level rise and its coastal impacts

2014

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Global warming in response to accumulation of human-induced greenhouse gases inside the atmosphere has already caused several visible consequences, among them increase of the Earth's mean temperature and ocean heat content, melting of glaciers, and loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. Ocean warming and land ice melt in turn are causing sea level to rise. Sea level rise and its impacts on coastal zones have become a question of growing interest in the scientific community, as well as in the media and public. In this review paper, we summarize the most up-to-date knowledge about sea level rise and its causes, highlighting the regional variability that superimposes the global mean rise. We also present sea level projections for the 21st century under different warming scenarios. We next address the issue of the sea level rise impacts. We question whether there is already observational evidence of coastal impacts of sea level rise and highlight the fact that results differ from one location to another. This suggests that the response of coastal systems to sea level rise is highly dependent on local natural and human settings. We finally show that in spite of remaining uncertainties about future sea levels and related impacts, it becomes possible to provide preliminary assessment of regional impacts of sea level rise.

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Closing the sea level rise budget with altimetry, Argo, and GRACE

Cited by 184 publications

References 21 publications

On the origins of Earth rotation anomalies: New insights on the basis of both “paleogeodetic” data and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data

On the origins of Earth rotation anomalies: New insights on the basis of both “paleogeodetic” data and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data

Identifying the causes of sea-level change

Sea level rise and its coastal impacts

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