Closures of coal‐fired power stations in Australia: local unemployment effects

Burke, Paul J.; Best, Rohan; Jotzo, Frank

doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12289

Cited by 61 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Finally, a successful coal phaseout needs to be equitable. It is also referred as a just transition [27][28][29] , where potential financial losses, and economic and social impacts, are well managed during the transition. Not only the overall magnitude, but also the distribution of these potential impacts across different regions, different stakeholders, and different demographic groups needs to be evaluated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

et al. 2021

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More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

et al. 2021

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“…Financial institutions should be prudent when deciding whether to provide finance for carbon-intensive coal power investment. For the government, when they make future development plans (e.g., the 14 th Five Year Plan during the period of 2021–2025) for the coal power sector, they should also fully consider the potential risk of plant's becoming stranded, as closing down coal plants could also lead to mass unemployment ( Burke et al., 2019 ) in the future. Moreover, the massive earlier retirement of coal power plants will generate tremendous stress on China's power sector, and much renewables will be required to replace such a large fraction of power generation in the next three decades.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of national carbon pricing in phasing out China's coal power

Zhang

et al. 2021

iScience

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Summary As the country with the world's largest coal power capacity, China is launching a national carbon market. How the carbon pricing may contribute to phasing out China's coal power is a great concern. We collect full-sample data set of China's 4540 operating coal plant units and develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo financial model to assess the financial sustainability of the plant operation. Although China's coal plants have long residual technical lifetime, their operations are close to the break-even state. Even with low carbon price of 50 CNY/tCO 2 growing at 4%/y and the permits being fully auctioned, the average residual lifetime of all the plants will be reduced by 5.43 years, and the cumulative CO 2 emission from 2020 to 2050 will be reduced by 22.73 billion ton. The spatial disparity in the carbon pricing effect is significant, and the western regions are more vulnerable to the carbon pricing risk than the eastern regions.

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“…Art. 8(1), page 8 of 20 Fisher and Nelson: Atmospheric mercury in Australia: recent findings and future research needs coal-fired power stations (Burke et al, 2018). These changes are expected to significantly perturb the anthropogenic mercury emissions budget.…”

Section: Summary and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric mercury in Australia

Fisher

Nelson

2020

Elem Sci Anth

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Mercury is a toxic bioaccumulative pollutant, with the atmosphere being the primary pathway for global distribution. Although atmospheric mercury cycling has been extensively monitored and modeled across the Northern Hemisphere, there has long been a dearth of mercury data for the Southern Hemisphere. Recent efforts in Australia are helping to fill this gap, with new observational records that span environments ranging from cool temperate to warm tropical climates and near-source to background conditions. Here, we review recent research on atmospheric mercury in Australia, highlighting new observational constraints on atmospheric concentrations, emissions, and deposition and, where possible, comparing these to model estimates. We also provide our best estimate of the current Australian atmospheric mercury budget. Ambient mercury observations collected to date show unique features not captured at other observing sites across the Southern Hemisphere, including very low concentrations at inland sites and a monsoon season drawdown in the tropical north. Previously compiled estimates of Australian anthropogenic mercury emissions differ substantially due to both methodological differences (e.g., assumptions about mercury control technology in coal-fired power plants) and recent closures of major Australian mercury sources, and none are appropriate for modern-day Australia. For mercury emissions from biomass burning, new measurements from Australian smoke plumes show emission factors for both savanna and temperate forest fires are significantly lower than measured elsewhere in the world, and prior estimates based on non-Australian data are likely too high. Although significant uncertainties remain, our analysis suggests that emissions from terrestrial sources (both newly released and legacy) significantly exceed those from anthropogenic sources. However, recent bidirectional air-surface flux observations suggest this source is likely balanced by deposition and surface uptake at local scales. Throughout, we highlight lingering uncertainties and identify critical future research needs for understanding Australian atmospheric mercury and its role in Southern Hemisphere mercury cycling.

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Closures of coal‐fired power stations in Australia: local unemployment effects

Cited by 61 publications

References 25 publications

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

The role of national carbon pricing in phasing out China's coal power

Atmospheric mercury in Australia

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