Cloud-Computing Trend Analysis of Urbanization Impacts on Land Surface Temperature and Electricity Demand in Gaborone, Botswana

Abstract

Land use land cover (LULC) changes are critical drivers of global environmental changes, profoundly impacting sustainability in rapidly urbanizing regions. In urban areas, where vegetation cover is reduced, LULC changes significantly affect the distribution and intensity of Land Surface Temperature (LST), which in turn influences electricity demand and consumption. This study explores the relationship between urbanization, vegetation loss, surface temperature and electricity demand in Gaborone, Botswana. The study utilized the Landsat data to conduct a 15-year (2005–2020) spatio-temporal analysis of LULC changes and LST dynamics, identified surface urban heat islands (SUHI) using the Getis-Ord Gi* hot-spot analysis and assessed the correlation between LST and key spectral indices adopted in the study. The analysis employed Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform and the Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm, known for their accuracy and efficiency in classification and change detection studies. Findings reveal substantial LULC transformations in Gaborone with approximately 12 km² of land converted to Built-Up areas, driving a 2.36% annual urban growth rate and shrinking green and bare spaces. Consequently, surface temperatures rose by about 2.1 °C, impacting energy demand, particularly for cooling during hot summers. This demand surge, coupled with urban expansion, has fueled higher electricity prices, posing new challenges in climate adaptation and mitigation. The study provides critical insights into the interplay between urbanization, rising temperatures, and energy consumption in Gaborone. These insights highlight the urgent need for developing sustainable urban planning and energy strategies to address the impacts of climate change, land degradation, and energy poverty.