Clustering diurnal cycles of day-to-day temperature change to understand their impacts on air quality forecasting in mountain-basin areas

Abstract

Abstract. Air pollution is substantially modulated by meteorological conditions, and especially their diurnal variations may play a key role in air quality evolution. However, the behaviors of temperature diurnal cycles along with the associated atmospheric condition and their effects on air quality in China remain poorly understood. Here, for the first time we examine the diurnal cycles of day-to-day temperature change and reveal their impacts on winter air quality forecasting in mountain-basin areas. Three different diurnal cycles of the preceding day-to-day temperature change are identified and exhibit notably distinct effects on the day-to-day changes in atmospheric dispersion conditions and air quality. The diurnal cycle with increasing temperature obviously enhances the atmospheric stability in the lower troposphere and suppresses the development of the planetary boundary layer, thus deteriorating the air quality on the following day. By contrast, the diurnal cycle with decreasing temperature in the morning is accompanied by a worse dispersion condition with more stable atmosphere stratification and weaker surface wind speed, thereby substantially worsening the air quality. Conversely, the diurnal cycle with decreasing temperature in the afternoon seems to improve air quality on the following day by enhancing the atmospheric dispersion conditions on the following day. The findings reported here are critical to improve the understanding of air pollution in mountain-basin areas and exhibit promising potential for air quality forecasting.