CMIP5 Climate Projections and RUSLE-Based Soil Erosion Assessment in The Central Part of Iran

Abstract

Soil erosion (SE) and climate change are closely related to environmental challenges that influence human wellbeing. However, the potential impacts of both processes in semi-arid areas are difficult to be predicted because of atmospheric variations and non-sustainable land use management. Thus, models can be employed to estimate the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on environmental and human interactions. In this research, we present a novel study where changes in soil erosion by water in the central part of Iran under current and future climate scenarios are analyzed using the Climate Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) under three Representative Concentration Pathway-RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results showed that the estimated annual rate of SE in the study area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 averaged approximately 12.8 t ha −1 y −1 . The rangeland areas registered the highest soil erosion values, especially in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2070 with overall values of 4.25 t ha −1 y −1 and 4.1 t ha −1 y −1 , respectively. They were followed by agriculture fields with 1.31 t ha −1 y −1 and 1.33 t ha −1 y −1 . The lowest results were located in the residential areas with 0.61 t ha −1 y −1 and 0.63 t ha −1 y −1 in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2070, respectively. In contrast, RCP4.5 showed that the total soil erosion could experience a decrease in rangelands by − 0.24 t ha −1 y −1 (2050), and − 0.18 t ha −1 y −1 (2070) or a slight increase in the other land uses. We conclude that this study provides new insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop appropriate strategies to achieve sustainable land resources planning in semi-arid areas that could be affected by future and unforeseen climate change scenarios.Changes in land uses have consistently been described because of rapid population growth and the expansion of human settlement around the world 1-7 . These changes play important roles in shaping the landscape and altering land resources, sometimes with negative impacts 8 . Numerous scholars have concluded that unregulated land-use changes lead to environmental degradation that poses a major threat to the socioeconomic and ecological sustainability of soil as a vital resource [9][10][11] . Increasing pressure on land resources because of unsustainable cultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, climate change and drought, urbanization and poor land management practices are worsening land degradation on a global scale [12][13][14][15] . Among them, soil erosion (SE) is one of the common forms of land degradation that is related to unsustainable environmental management. Soil erosion is particularly severe in arid and semi-arid regions [15][16][17][18][19][20] .SE is a complex process resulting from the impacts of wind, precipitation, human activities and associated runoff processes that are influenced by parent material, soil properties, relief and vegetation cover 21,22 . Although

Predicting soil erosion potential under CMIP6 climate change scenarios in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia

“…For instance, the K factor values in dense areas such as forests and secondary forests showed low K factor values (southern, southeastern, and southwestern parts) while the agricultural and urbanized areas showed high K factor values (northern, northeastern, and northwestern parts). This was consistent with a previous study byHateffard et al (2021) that found the erodibility factor was mainly high in the agricultural area from 0.30 to 0.44 ton ha hr/ha MJ mm. The K factor values tended to reduce in regions with high elevation.…”

“…To assess the effect of future climate shifts on soil loss sensitivity, data obtained from CMIP6 by some predictions of CMIP6-SSP were applied in computing R values in the future. The used method in our work was in line with a previous study by Hateffard et al (2021) who found the predicted rainfall values would definitely cause soil erosion rate changes. The predicted soil erosion values were estimated in the study region based on the regional climate change that concerned 3 scenarios of SSPs.…”

“…These scenarios predict distinct greenhouse gas emission types, for instance, the SSP2.6 indicates low greenhouse gases emission, the SSP4.5, and SSP6 represent stable scenarios, whilst SSP8.5 expresses high greenhouse gases emission (Hu et al 2021). Several works have been conducted to estimate the effects of clime on the erosion of soil using distinct CMIP5-RCP periods all over the world for instance, in Iran (Hateffard et al 2021), Nepal (Talchabhadel et al 2019), Turkey (Orozbaev et al 2020), Sri Lanka (Senanayake and Pradhan 2022), Europe (Panagos et al 2021), Uzbekistan (Gafforov et al 2020), and Kenya (Watene et al 2021). However, new studies about the effect of climate on the erosion of soil under CMIP6-SSP scenarios are still scarce.…”

Land Degradation, Overland Flow, Soil Erosion, and Nutrient Loss in the Eastern Himalayas, India

“…The majority of current studies have been focused on erosion modeling using various automated processes and toolboxes for soil erosion estimation with the help of modern geospatial technology [28,29]. Some of the studies have also focused on soil loss potential under the context of climate change for predicting future soil loss [30,31]. However, the present study attempts to assess the rate of soil erosion by using only field data and the perceptions of local farmers regarding soil erosion and measures of soil conservation.…”