CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Tam, Benita Y.; Szeto, Kit K.; Bonsal, Barrie; Flato, Greg; Cannon, Alex J.; Rong, Robin Bing

doi:10.1080/07011784.2018.1537812

Cited by 61 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…A comprehensive Canada wide drought study assessed changes in the SPEI using outputs from 29 CMIP5 models (Tam et al, 2018). In agreement with Fig.…”

Section: Droughtsupporting

confidence: 73%

“…On annual scales, a dry-south-wet-north pattern characterizes projected drought changes over the CCRN domain (see Fig. 12b for drying over the south) (Tam et al, 2018). This pattern is largely accounted for by the combined results of projected dry conditions during the summer and autumn over southern regions, and the projected wet conditions during winter and spring over the northern and coastal regions of Canada.…”

Section: Droughtmentioning

confidence: 97%

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A Review and Synthesis of Future Earth System Change in the Interior of Western Canada: Part I – Climate and Meteorology

Stewart

Szeto

Bonsal

et al. 2019

Preprint

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The Interior of Western Canada, up to and including the Arctic, has experienced rapid change in its climate, hydrology, cryosphere and ecosystems and this is expected to continue. Although there is general consensus that warming will occur in the future, many critical issues remain. In this first of two articles, attention is placed on atmospheric-related issues that range from large scales down to individual precipitation events. Each of these is considered in terms of expected 25 change organized by season and utilizing climate scenario information as well as thermodynamically-driven future climatic forcing simulations. Large scale atmospheric circulations affecting this region are generally projected to become stronger in each season and, coupled with warming temperatures, lead to enhancements of numerous water-related and temperature-related extremes. These include winter snowstorms, freezing rain, drought as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods although not necessarily summer convection. Collective insights of these atmospheric findings are summarized in a consistent, 30 connected physical framework.

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“…A comprehensive Canada wide drought study assessed changes in the SPEI using outputs from 29 CMIP5 models (Tam et al, 2018). In agreement with Fig.…”

Section: Droughtsupporting

confidence: 73%

Section: Droughtmentioning

confidence: 97%

A Review and Synthesis of Future Earth System Change in the Interior of Western Canada: Part I – Climate and Meteorology

Stewart

Szeto

Bonsal

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…Near-and far-future changes (relative to 1986-2005) in water supply were also assessed using gridded annual and summer SPEI; a measure of longer-term moisture deficit or surplus calculated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. These data, incorporated in a Canada-wide drought study by Tam et al (2018), were calculated using bias-corrected temperature and precipitation from 29 CMIP5 GCMs for the period 1900-2100 based on a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Data from each GCM were regridded to a common 1°× 1°grid, which were then used to calculate multi-model median SPEI changes.…”

Section: Western Canadian Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Western Canadian freshwater availability: current and future vulnerabilities

et al. 2020

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The western cordillera supplies freshwater across much of western Canada mainly through meltwater from snow and ice. This “alpine water tower” has, and is projected to be associated with changes in the seasonality and amount of freshwater availability, which are critical in supporting the societal and environmental flow needs of the region. This study incorporates existing information to synthesize and evaluate current and future freshwater supplies and demands across major north, west, and east flowing sub-basins of the Canadian western cordillera. The assessment of supply indicators reveals several historical changes that are projected to continue, and be exacerbated, particularly by the end of this century and under a high emission scenario. The greatest and most widespread impact is the seasonality of streamflow characterized by earlier spring freshets, increased winter, and decreased summer flow. Future winter and spring warming over all basins will result in decreases in end of season snow and glacier mass balance with greatest declines in more southern regions. In many areas, there will be a greater likelihood of summer freshwater shortages. All sub-basins have environmental and economic freshwater demands/pressures, especially in more southern watersheds where population and infrastructure are more prevalent and industrial, agricultural, and water energy needs are higher. Concerns regarding the continued ability to maintain suitable aquatic habitats and adequate water quality are issues across all regions. These water supply changes along with continued/increasing demands will combine to create a variety of freshwater vulnerabilities across all regions of western Canada. Southern basins including the South Saskatchewan and Okanagan are likely to experience the greatest vulnerabilities due to future summer freshwater supply shortages and increasing economic demands. In more northern areas, vulnerabilities primarily relate to how the rapidly changing landscape (mainly associated with permafrost thaw) impacts freshwater quantity and quality. These vulnerabilities will require various adaptation measures in response to alterations in the timing and amount of future freshwater supplies and demands.

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“…SPEI is a drought index based on precipitation and PET, which combines the multi-scale convenience of time and temperature effects for drought assessment, and it is considered to be more suitable for drought monitoring and analysis under climate change [20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. In this study, SPEI was applied to describe the variations in the dry and wet conditions of the Poyang Lake basin, and further comparison was conducted with two types of SPEI based on two sets of PET data calculated by TH and PM formulas.…”

Section: Spei Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to comprehensively consider the effects of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and to assess the dry-wet variations reasonably on multi-time scales, a standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was recently proposed by Vicente-Serrano et al [15,20]. Frequently used by researchers in dissecting the spatiotemporal characteristics and changing tendency in different regions, SPEI has been proven to be more effective to represent wetness and dryness under the background of global climate change [13,14,[21][22][23][24][25][26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Dry/Wet Variations in the Poyang Lake Basin Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Based on Two Potential Evapotranspiration Algorithms

Liu

2019

Water

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Global warming has resulted in unevenly distributed changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, which has some influence on dry/wet conditions, thus exerting a tremendous impact on national life and the social economy, especially agricultural production. In order to characterize the dry/wet variations in the Poyang Lake basin during 1958–2013, based on the potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimated by the Thornthwaite (TH) and Penman–Monteith (PM) formulas, two types of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), namely SPEI_th and SPEI_pm, were calculated in this study. The characteristic of dry/wet variations in the Poyang Lake basin was analyzed and a comparative analysis of two SPEIs was conducted. The results indicate that both SPEI series showed a wet trend in the Poyang Lake basin on an annual scale as well as seasonal scales during 1958–2013, except for spring and autumn. A drying trend was observed in spring, while in autumn, the dry and wet conditions in two SPEIs had opposite trends. However, all trends from two SPEIs were not significant, except for summer SPEI_pm. Meanwhile, significant positive correlations were detected between precipitation and two SPEIs, with the correlation coefficients above 0.95, whereas negative correlations were detected between PET and two SPEIs, with the correlation coefficients ranging from −0.17 to −0.85. This indicates that precipitation was the main climatic factor to determine change in dry/wet conditions in the Poyang Lake basin. Although there were obvious differences between the accumulated values of the Penman–Monteith-based PET (ET_pm) and Thornthwaite-based PET (ET_th), trends in the SPEI_pm series were generally consistent with those in the SPEI_th series, revealing that the method for PET calculation was not critical to the change in dry/wet conditions. Moreover, the results of the conditional probability of SPEI_pm and SPEI_th show that both SPEI_pm and SPEI_th could detect wet or dry events that were identified by SPEI_pm or SPEI_th.

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CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Cited by 61 publications

References 55 publications

A Review and Synthesis of Future Earth System Change in the Interior of Western Canada: Part I – Climate and Meteorology

A Review and Synthesis of Future Earth System Change in the Interior of Western Canada: Part I – Climate and Meteorology

Western Canadian freshwater availability: current and future vulnerabilities

Analysis of Dry/Wet Variations in the Poyang Lake Basin Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Based on Two Potential Evapotranspiration Algorithms

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