CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

Yang, Xiaoman; Zhou, Botao; Xu, Ying; Han, Zhenyu

doi:10.1007/s00376-021-0351-4

Cited by 208 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…In this study, all the GCM project significant increases in the air temperature and precipitation in the future period, which suggest that the Amur River Basin will become wetter and warmer. These results are consistent with the findings of Yang et al [11], which also projected significant increases in the air temperature and precipitation in this basin. Our results suggest that the runoffs in the upper and lower reaches of the Amur River will significantly increase in the future.…”

Section: Impact Of Future Climate Changes On Runoffsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…This finding suggests that the uncertainties in the GCM projections of the runoffs were larger in the high-emission scenario than under the median-emission scenario. The GCMs selected in this study were based on the evaluations of their accuracies in previous studies, and the trends in precipitation and air temperature in the future period compared with the baseline period obtained by the four GCMs in this study were generally consistent with the pervious study of Yang et al [11]. This increases the confidence in using these GCMs to analyze the changes in the runoffs in the future period.…”

Section: Uncertainties and Limitationssupporting

confidence: 70%

“…Some studies have projected future climate changes in the Amur River Basin. Yang et al [11] found that the air temperature in Northeast China will increase by 2.9 • C and 5.8 • C by the end of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios provided by CMIP6, respectively, and the precipitation will increase by 20-35% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Shin and Jung [12] used 34 GCMs from CMIP5 to analyze the future changes in the air temperature and precipitation in Northeast Asia, and they found that the increasing rates of air temperature and precipitation in the study basin were higher than the global averaged values.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying the Impact of Future Climate Change on Runoff in the Amur River Basin Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and CMIP6 GCM Projections

Wen

Gao

2021

Atmosphere

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The Amur River is one of the top ten longest rivers in the world, and its hydrological response to future climate change has been rarely investigated. In this study, the outputs of four GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were corrected and downscaled to drive a distributed hydrological model. Then, the spatial variations of runoff changes under the future climate conditions in the Amur River Basin were quantified. The results suggest that runoffs will tend to increase in the future period (2021–2070) compared with the baseline period (1961–2010), particularly in August and September. Differences were also found among different GCMs and scenarios. The ensemble mean of the GCMs suggests that the basin-averaged annual precipitation will increase by 14.6% and 15.2% under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The increase in the annual runoff under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (22.5%) is projected to be larger than that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (19.2%) at the lower reach of the main channel. Future climate changes also tend to enhance the flood peak and flood volume. The findings of this study bring new understandings of the hydrological response to future climate changes and are helpful for water resource management in Eurasia.

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Section: Impact Of Future Climate Changes On Runoffsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Uncertainties and Limitationssupporting

confidence: 70%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Quantifying the Impact of Future Climate Change on Runoff in the Amur River Basin Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and CMIP6 GCM Projections

Wen

Gao

2021

Atmosphere

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“…The evaluation showed that the GCMs in the CMIP6 performed better than those in the CMIP5, especially in simulating extreme precipitation. Yang et al (2021) assessed the performance of 20 coupled GCMs in the CMIP6 in simulating temperature and precipitation in China, and found that the GCMs in the CMIP6 could reproduce the spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation. Dabang et al (2020) compared the simulation ability of GCMs in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 in terms of temperature and precipitation in China from 1961 to 2005, and the results indicated that the current GCMs in the CMIP6 simulated lower temperatures and higher precipitation across the country compared with the CMIP5 models, but with little improvement in interannual temperature and winter monsoon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Ability of CMIP6 Global Climate Models to Simulate Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, China

et al. 2021

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Choosing an appropriate GCM (Global Climate Model, GCM) is of great significance for the simulation of the hydrological cycle over a basin under future climate scenarios. In this study, the Rank Score Method (RS) with eight indicators were applied to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of 19 GCMs issued in the Sixth Global Atmosphere and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The results indicated that: 1) The GCMs perform differently in simulating precipitation over the YRB with the top six GCMs ranking from MRI-ESM2-0, ACCESS-CM2, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, FGOALS-f3-L, to MPI-ESM1-2-HR. 2) Most GCMs overestimated the precipitation, and poorly simulated the phase distribution of extremes mainly due to overstimulation of wet season span and precipitation amount in the season, although all GCMs could capture decadal feature of annual precipitation. Meanwhile, it is also found that most GCMs underestimated summer precipitation and overestimated spring precipitation. 3) The GCMs well simulated the spatial distribution of annual precipitation, with an overestimation in the source area, and an underestimation in the northern part of the middle reaches of YRB.

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“…Temperature and precipitation are essential indicators for climate change. In the past few years, many research efforts have been devoted to model evaluations and projections of temperature and precipitation over China within the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) framework (Yang et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introduction 1backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and Precipitation Trends Using CMIP6 Model Data Using the Different Senarios in Jimma Zone, ONRS of Ethiopia

Fufa¹

2021

JRDM

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CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

Cited by 208 publications

References 48 publications

Quantifying the Impact of Future Climate Change on Runoff in the Amur River Basin Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and CMIP6 GCM Projections

Quantifying the Impact of Future Climate Change on Runoff in the Amur River Basin Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and CMIP6 GCM Projections

Evaluation of the Ability of CMIP6 Global Climate Models to Simulate Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, China

Temperature and Precipitation Trends Using CMIP6 Model Data Using the Different Senarios in Jimma Zone, ONRS of Ethiopia

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