CMIP6 Ocean and Atmospheric Climate Change Projections in the Seaflower Biosphere Reserve—Caribbean Sea—by the End of the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

Seventeen climate models from CMIP6 were examined to assess the expected behavior of seven atmospheric/ocean variables in the Caribbean Basin and the Seaflower Biosphere Reserve (SBR) during the twenty-first century, under two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Additionally, an ensemble is made with the five models with the best oceanic resolution in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation shows significant negative trends in most of the projected periods, while air and sea surface temperature, surface salinity and mean sterodynamic sea level (SDSL) have significant positive trends. Air temperature in SBR will probably increase by 2 °C compared to the preindustrial period after 2050 (SSP5-8.5) or 2060 (SSP2-4.5). The warming trend in the region could extend the hurricane season and/or increase hurricane frequency, affect ecosystems like coral reefs and mangroves, and intensify ocean stratification. For the same period, SDSL is expected to rise in SBR between ~24.2 and 39.9 cm. If all contributing factors are included, an increase of up to ~95 cm (SSP5-8.5) could be expected by the end of the twenty-first century. This sea level rise would modify the ecological balance and enhance flooding, affecting tourism and risking the disappearance of the low-elevation islands.