Chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) reduces film thickness, eliminates step height, and achieves high levels of planarity in semiconductor manufacturing. However, research into its mechanisms is still in progress, and there are many issues to be resolved. To solve problems in CMP, it is necessary to understand the contact phenomenon that occurs at the pad–wafer interface, especially pad asperity. Moreover, understanding the non-uniform distribution of pad asperity, such as height and radius, is essential for predicting the material removal rate (MRR). In this study, based on the existing Greenwood–Williamson (GW) theory and probability density function (PDF), a modified mathematical model that includes changes in asperity distribution was developed and validated experimentally. The contact model proposed in this study included functions that calculated the time-dependent height and radius wear of the pad asperities. Specifically, the experimentally obtained values were compared with the values obtained by the model, and the comparison results were analyzed. Thereby, it was found that the contact model and MRR model considering the change in asperity wear and distribution due to CMP proposed in this study are in better agreement with the experimental results than the existing model, which shows that the MRR can be predicted by a mathematical model using the change in asperity distribution.