Co-created Future Scenarios as a Tool to Communicate Sustainable Development in Coastal Communities in Palawan, Philippines

Abstract

Scenarios can be used to communicate potential future changes and engage and connect different audiences in exploring sustainable solutions. Communicating scenarios using creative visualisation, co-creation and a focus on local contexts are especially promising. This research is conducted on the island of Palawan in the Philippines as part of the GCRF Blue Communities project. With a quasi-experimental design, we investigate the psychological and emotional effects of the engagement with future scenarios as a tool for communicating sustainability. Together with local stakeholders and community members, three distinct, locally relevant scenario narratives (Business as Usual, Best Case, and Worst Case) have been co-created. Subsequently, a sample of N = 109 local high school students was asked to creatively engage with these scenario narratives. Intentions to engage in sustainable behaviour, perceived behavioural control, ascription of responsibility, consideration of future consequences, six basic emotions and connectedness to place were assessed before and after the activity via paper-pencil administrated questionnaires. A mixed-model analysis showed significant increases in intentions to engage in sustainable behaviour, however, this increase disappeared when consideration of future consequences was added as a covariate, suggesting a mediating effect. The level of consideration of future consequences also increased significantly after engaging with any of the future scenarios, which questions the common interpretation of consideration of future consequences as a trait variable. Perceived behavioural control significantly increased following the engagement with each of the scenarios whereas ascription of responsibility and connectedness to place did not show any changes. Overall, the two most emotion-evoking scenarios, Best Case Scenario and Worst Case Scenario, turn out as superior over the Business as Usual Scenario, which points to the relevance of emotional framing for effective messaging in our sample. This is the first systematic, quantitative assessment of the effects of future scenarios as a communication tool.

Building bridges between natural and social science disciplines: a standardized methodology to combine data on ecosystem quality trends

“…Visualizations and maps are useful to illustrate regional differences, to reflect complex interactions or to make invisible resources tangible [107,108]. Another technique, especially for the co-development of resource management plans rather than their evaluation, could be creating future scenarios and thereby outline potential prospects but also encourage community interaction and sustainable engagement [106].…”

“…Presenting scientific findings in a discipline-specific, complex matter can trigger feelings of reactance in the audience, and make them feel overwhelmed, unmotivated and helpless [103]. Drawing on evidence from psychology and environmental communication research, tailoring communication can counteract the influence of cognitive biases (for an overview, see [104] or Zhao & Luo [105]). We recommend adapting the communication technique to local preferences and using methods to enhance understanding such as visualizations or maps [106].…”

“…Drawing on evidence from psychology and environmental communication research, tailoring communication can counteract the influence of cognitive biases (for an overview, see [104] or Zhao & Luo [105]). We recommend adapting the communication technique to local preferences and using methods to enhance understanding such as visualizations or maps [106]. Visualizations and maps are useful to illustrate regional differences, to reflect complex interactions or to make invisible resources tangible [107,108].…”

Advancing the potential impact of future scenarios by integrating psychological principles

“…Distant time horizons such as 2050, or end-of-century, may be difficult for most people to imagine (Butler et al, 2020), especially because a typical time horizon for human cognition is 10 years into the future (Tonn et al, 2006). This is particularly the case if meeting subsistence needs is the priority, as it is the case in developing countries and communities (Richter, Sumeldan et al, 2021). A global framing in future scenarios may also create a cognitive barrier, due to the sheer geographic and thematic scale (Butler et al, 2020;Dulic et al, 2016), as will be discussed below.…”

“…This construct is called "Consideration of Future Consequences" (CFC) and explains long-term, stable inter-individual and inter-cultural variance in future-oriented behaviour (Murphy and Dockray, 2018;Strathman et al, 1994). Although there is no clear evidence yet if and how CFC can be strengthened to foster sustainable decision-making (Joireman et al, 2012), well-designed scenarios may provide a way to connect people with the future, boost their level of CFC and potentially encourage sustainable behaviour change (see initial evidence in Richter, Sumeldan et al (2021).…”