Co‐exploring relational heuristics for sustainability transitions towards more resilient and just Anthropocene futures

Preiser, Rika; Biggs, Reinette; Hamann, Maike; Sitas, Nadia; Selomane, Odirilwe; Waddell, Joy; Clements, Hayley S.; Hichert, Tanja

doi:10.1002/sres.2815

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Circle of Life and Recovering Country ) indicate aspirations for building resilience as a goal, but how to achieve it is not detailed or discussed in management, whereas in South Africa resilience is both a goal and a process to define tipping points and system boundaries. Opening conversations about what resilience is can help managers and other stakeholders define limits to adaptation and re‐articulate existing approaches for adapting biodiversity conservation by considering current values and aspirations for the future (Peterson St‐Laurent et al, 2021; Preiser et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To examine perspectives for conceptualising and implementing climate adaptation, our focus is on exploring futures consciousness. Futures consciousness refers to the shared capacity of being aware of the potential for actions in the present to influence future outcomes and being mindful about the consequences of decisions (Sharpe et al, 2016), entailing critical reflection on context, processes and relations (Preiser et al, 2021). Ahvenharju et al (2018) developed a model to understand futures consciousness based on five dimensions.…”

Section: Adaptation and Future‐oriented Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

Múnera‐Roldán,

Colloff,

van Kerkhoff

et al. 2023

People and Nature

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Protected areas are central for long‐term conservation of biodiversity and can potentially support climate change mitigation. But protected areas are also affected by climate change. Managers and scientists are increasingly facing the difficult task of making decisions under rapid change. Understanding individual and institutional futures considerations for adaptation is fundamental to evaluate whether protected area governance is adequate to anticipate, prepare and respond to climate change. Using mixed qualitative methods, we analysed adaptation narratives extracted from 51 semi‐structured interviews with conservation practitioners and scientists involved in protected area management in Australia, Colombia and South Africa. We applied a multidimensional model to examine how people make sense of the concept of adaptation. The model allowed us to evaluate how different actors perceive and conceptualise the future and their level of awareness of climate change impacts on values of protected areas, as reflected in the expectations and motivations behind adaptation actions. The results show a plurality of adaptation concepts and approaches. The narratives are framed under different governance approaches (top‐down, bottom‐up, participatory) influencing the sense of agency, the rationale for adaptation (adaptation of what and for whom) and the level of acceptance of change. Action time is associated with preferences and actions in response to ecological change, with more proactive action linked with systemic approaches. We propose that examining world views underpinning how individuals and institutions make sense of the concept of adaptation can support future‐oriented conservation practices despite the inherent uncertainty of climate change. The narratives presented here may provide a basis to facilitate deliberations about current practices and identify potential contradictions between individual and collective aspirations for adaptation to create pathways for collective action towards desired futures. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adaptation and Future‐oriented Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

Múnera‐Roldán,

Colloff,

van Kerkhoff

et al. 2023

People and Nature

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“…Recent evaluations of the SoGA workshops indicate that the process enhances interactive and spontaneous participation among stakeholders, promotes the exploration of new ideas and experimentation, facilitates communal learning, provides tools for conflict resolution, and supports the coexistence of diverse knowledge types (Tuckey et al, 2023;van Velden et al, 2023). Furthermore, the SoGA framework engages with the dynamic nature of change, aligning with contemporary collaborative change-making approaches (Pereira et al, 2018;Preiser et al, 2021). The transformative foresight methods applied in these workshops are particularly effective in managing divergent views and power imbalances within group dynamics, allowing participants to discuss and negotiate what constitutes a "desired" future (Pereira et al, 2020).…”

Section: Le Arning From the Sog A Initiative: Impli C Ati On S For De...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative

Preiser,

Hichert,

Biggs

et al. 2024

Development Policy Review

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MotivationForesight methods are increasingly recognized as essential for decision‐making in complex environments, particularly within development and research settings. As foresight methods continue to gain prominence for decision‐making, their application in these settings grows. Funders and policy‐makers can benefit from the experience of transformative foresight practitioners and researchers who are skilled in designing novel ways to envision alternative and diverse development futures.PurposeThe Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SoGA) initiative has experimented with transformative foresight since its inception in 2016.We position SoGA within the framework of Minkkinen et al. (2019); we present its transformative capacity through participatory visioning; and we explore how foresight methods can shape strategic development options.Approach and methodsWe draw lessons from how SoGA, used extensively in various contexts around the world, has introduced experimental transformative foresight to deal with diversity and complexity. We describe the transformative foresight processes in detail.FindingsSoGA exemplifies how transformative foresight can support policy and change initiatives by providing participants, planners, and decision‐makers with opportunities to reinforce the collaborative and transformative objectives of their policy and convening practices. Such engagement not only deepens the strategic impact of policies, it also encourages a more inclusive and participatory approach to policy development, aligning with broader goals for sustainable and impactful change.

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“…Throughout the next century, the world will experience, unevenly though fully developed, the distress of social-environmental systems due to the consequences of anthropogenic global change. These circumstances require a philosophy to support governance, for example, in building adaptive strategies such as Bayesian methods (recurrent updating of probable scenarios) or "relational heuristics" (Biggs, 2008;Preiser et al, 2021).…”

Section: Contextualizing the Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Bayesian approach is a conceptual paradigm to search for approximate solutions (in a probabilistic sense). Examples are various practices: learning by doing; updating (probable) scenarios successively as more evidence or information becomes available, or stepwise constraining systemic uncertainties (see, for example Fuerth and Faber, 2012;Barash et al, 2019;Muiderman et al, 2020;Biggs et al, 2021;Lo and Zhang, 2021;Preiser et al, 2021).…”

Section: Complex-adaptive Social-ecological Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat

Böhle

Marone

2022

Front. Polit. Sci.

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This study explores how experiences from the current pandemic can inform societal responses to future climate change. To that end, an established philosophical concept of geoscientific insights (geoethics) is utilized to advice on governance under systemic uncertainty that, in turn, is a critical feature of complex-adaptive dynamics. Illustrative examples are the Covid-19 health pandemic and the impact of the global sea-level rise to threatening heights in the early 22nd Century. The term “geoethics” labels an emergent geo-philosophical school of thought rooted in geoscience expertise. When combined with contemporary political philosophies, geoethics leads to a geo-philosophical framework that can support adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics by favoring multi-agent and context-depending processes (e.g., learning-by-doing). The proposed geo-philosophical framework merges geoethics with the political philosophies of H. Jonas (1903–1993), L. Kohlberg (1927–1987), and M. Bunge (1919–2020). These contemporary philosophies emphasize as relevant for achieving a modern caretaking society, respectively, “the hierarchy of societal coordination processes,” “the intergenerational responsibility of agents of change,” and “the balancing of individual wellbeing (happiness) and duties.” When these philosophies are combined with geoethics, a logical approach can be derived for policy design and decision-making. It emphasizes the “autonomy” (of the human agent) combined with a civic culture that favors “trustworthiness,” “scientific culture.” and a “culture of inclusive justice.” We argue that governance of adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics (e.g., climate change impact) can be informed by the geo- and society-centric perspectives of the proposed geo-philosophical framework. It can address “Human Earth Nexus” governance issues using the knowledge of both natural and social sciences and applying the lens of geoethical thinking.

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Co‐exploring relational heuristics for sustainability transitions towards more resilient and just Anthropocene futures

Cited by 9 publications

References 67 publications

Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative

Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat

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