Coastal Migration due to 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise

Lincke, Daniël; Hinkel, Jochen

doi:10.1029/2020ef001965

Cited by 64 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…SLR‐related hazards could potentially displace tens of millions of people living in coastal areas by the end of this century (Hino et al, 2017 ; Lincke & Hinkel, 2021 ; Nicholls et al, 2011 ). Depending on population growth, more than one billion people could be populating the low‐elevation coastal zone and be vulnerable to SLR‐related hazards (Hauer, 2017 ; Neumann et al, 2015 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Duijndam

Botzen

Hagedoorn

et al. 2021

WIREs Climate Change

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Sea‐level rise (SLR) threatens millions of people living in coastal areas through permanent inundation and other SLR‐related hazards. Migration is one way for people to adapt to these coastal changes, but presents an enormous policy challenge given the number of people affected. Knowledge about the relationship between SLR‐related hazards and migration is therefore important to allow for anticipatory policymaking. In recent years, an increasing number of empirical studies have investigated, using survey or census data, how SLR‐related hazards including flooding, salinization, and erosion together with non‐environmental factors influence migration behavior. In this article, we provide a systematic literature review of this empirical work. Our review findings indicate that flooding is not necessarily associated with increased migration. Severe flood events even tend to decrease long‐term migration in developing countries, although more research is needed to better understand the underpinnings of this finding. Salinization and erosion do generally lead to migration, but the number of studies is sparse. Several non‐environmental factors including wealth and place attachment influence migration alongside SLR‐related hazards. Based on the review, we propose a research agenda by outlining knowledge gaps and promising avenues for future research on this topic. Promising research avenues include using behavioral experiments to investigate migration behavior under future SLR scenarios, studying migration among other adaptation strategies, and complementing empirical research with dynamic migration modeling. We conclude that more empirical research on the SLR‐migration nexus is needed to properly understand and anticipate the complex dynamics of migration under SLR, and to design adequate policy responses. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics < Aggregation Techniques for Impacts and Mitigation Costs Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change < Learning from Cases and Analogies Assessing Impacts of Climate Change < Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Duijndam

Botzen

Hagedoorn

et al. 2021

WIREs Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Global warming will cause flooding of productive coastal areas within the next 100 years involving substantial uncertainties and neither easy nor inexpensive solutions (Anderson et al, 2020;Lincke and Hinkel, 2021). The "shifting baseline syndrome" will mark the events (Pauly, 1995;Jones et al, 2020;Thomas, 2020), and regional differences within and beyond national jurisdictions will characterize them.…”

Section: A Narrative -Global Mean Sea-levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat

Böhle

Marone

2022

Front. Polit. Sci.

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This study explores how experiences from the current pandemic can inform societal responses to future climate change. To that end, an established philosophical concept of geoscientific insights (geoethics) is utilized to advice on governance under systemic uncertainty that, in turn, is a critical feature of complex-adaptive dynamics. Illustrative examples are the Covid-19 health pandemic and the impact of the global sea-level rise to threatening heights in the early 22nd Century. The term “geoethics” labels an emergent geo-philosophical school of thought rooted in geoscience expertise. When combined with contemporary political philosophies, geoethics leads to a geo-philosophical framework that can support adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics by favoring multi-agent and context-depending processes (e.g., learning-by-doing). The proposed geo-philosophical framework merges geoethics with the political philosophies of H. Jonas (1903–1993), L. Kohlberg (1927–1987), and M. Bunge (1919–2020). These contemporary philosophies emphasize as relevant for achieving a modern caretaking society, respectively, “the hierarchy of societal coordination processes,” “the intergenerational responsibility of agents of change,” and “the balancing of individual wellbeing (happiness) and duties.” When these philosophies are combined with geoethics, a logical approach can be derived for policy design and decision-making. It emphasizes the “autonomy” (of the human agent) combined with a civic culture that favors “trustworthiness,” “scientific culture.” and a “culture of inclusive justice.” We argue that governance of adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics (e.g., climate change impact) can be informed by the geo- and society-centric perspectives of the proposed geo-philosophical framework. It can address “Human Earth Nexus” governance issues using the knowledge of both natural and social sciences and applying the lens of geoethical thinking.

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“…Past experience has shown that effective, site-specific coastal planning can mitigate beach erosion and result in a stable coastline; the most prominent example of this is the Dutch coast [48]. While sea level rise results in coastal recession almost everywhere around the world, many locations have ambient erosive trends related to human interventions that could theoretically be avoided by more sustainable coastal and watershed management practices [49,20,50]. At the same time, the magnitude of the projected sea level rise implies unprecedented pressure on our coasts, requiring the development and implementation of informed and effective adaptation measures.…”

Section: Moving Toward Coastal Zone Sand Management Practices At the Sand Cell Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the overlooked impact of river dams on beach erosion worldwide

Graffin¹,

Regard²,

Carretier³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The current retreat of the world's coastline has a profound impact on human activities and ecosystems. The scientific community has primarily focused on the potential impact of sea level rise. At the global scale, the contribution of river sand loads to coastal erosion has been overlooked. Here we present the first global sand pathway model from land to sea. Our model reveals that sand tends to accumulate towards tropical regions. We show that the recent shoreline evolution is significantly controlled by the imbalance in the sand budget, challenging the idea that sea level rise due to climate change is currently the main driver of coastal erosion. Our model highlights that the significant reduction in sand supply due to tens of thousands of river dams and its consequences on coastal erosion could be avoided by an effective sustainable management policy.

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Coastal Migration due to 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise

Cited by 64 publications

References 64 publications

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Phronesis at the Human-Earth Nexus: Managed Retreat

On the overlooked impact of river dams on beach erosion worldwide

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