Cocaine's fall and marijuana's rise: questions and insights based on new estimates of consumption and expenditures in US drug markets

Abstract

from targeting, for such a carte blanche approach would be counterproductive. It does mean that the 'bad criminals' are targeted with far greater intensity and vigor to create signals within the market and to shape the behavior of criminal groups toward generating lesser security and social harms. Declaration of interests None.

The rise of marijuana and the fall of cocaine in the United States: for better, for worse?

“…Caulkins et al [1] have performed a remarkable job in difficult circumstances trying to estimate changes in the consumption of and expenditure on cocaine and marijuana in the United States between 2006 and 2010. It would be easy to take issue with the assumptions on which their estimates are based, but I amgoing to assume that any bias in their estimates is relatively constant and that the trends they identify are real.…”

“…The analysis of recent US population-level trends in the prevalence of heavy use, consumption and expenditure of illicit drugs by Caulkins et al is timely and thoughtprovoking [1]. While the authors were appropriately cautious, and avoided attributing possible causes for the trends observed, the public health implications of their findings could be substantial and merit serious attention.…”

“…First and foremost, if the analysis by Caulkins et al [1] is correct and drug consumption truly has shifted from cocaine to marijuana, all else being equal and magnitudes notwithstanding, this could be viewed as a positive development for public health. Cocaine, and particularly crack cocaine, is no doubt more harmful to the individual and society than marijuana [2].…”

Response to Commentaries

“…That is true even if one focuses only on heroin and cocaine; selling arrests were 116 000 in 2009, compared to 135 000 in 2002 [14]. Note that estimated cocaine consumption declined sharply in that period and heroin consumption was essentially flat [15].…”

Can the AML system be evaluated without better data?

“…Most profits from the cocaine trade are laundered in North America and in Europe, whereas illicit income from other sub-regions is probably laundered in the Caribbean. None of these figures has a provenance that bears scrutiny and the drug figures are considerably higher than estimates from the United States that do have a well-established provenance [16]. 12 Anticorruption NGOs such as Global Financial Integrity publish large 'estimates' of illicit financial flows, which have not so far received the critical attention that they merit (see [17] and essays in [18]).…”