Cognitive mapping of the economy of trust

Abstract

The concept of trust has been extensively explored by governments, researchers, and academic communities focusing on public authorities and the financial system, albeit in separate contexts. Trust plays a vital role in both sectors, influencing various aspects of governance, economic stability, and societal well-being. However, the relationship and interdependencies between trust in the government and trust in the financial system remain relatively unexplored. In addressing this gap, this study aims to improve the understanding of the role of trust in the socio-economic system and provide a framework for analysing the complex causal mechanisms between developments in the financial and public sectors using trust concepts. To achieve this, the study adopts the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) method in combination with the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) as the methodological approach. The results highlight that even a small decline in trust can have severe repercussions on the stability of the financial system, deposit levels, exchange rate stability, and the prevalence of non-performing loans. Additionally, violations of trust in the financial sector also impact the development of the public sector, resulting in decreased trust in the government, fiscal stability, tax revenues, and government bond purchases. The study also demonstrated that when trust in both the financial sector and the government is eroded simultaneously, the complexities and the extent of negative consequences are amplified. These findings emphasize the interconnected nature of trust dynamics in both sectors and underscore the importance of a comprehensive approach to addressing trust-related challenges.