Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration

Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04039-5

Cited by 98 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The last decade has seen active debate on the paradigm shift from a traditional “local‐is‐best” scenario (Mortlock ; Bucharova et al ) to strategies that enrich plantings with seed from provenances growing in environments matching predicted future climates (i.e., climate‐adjusted provenancing—Prober et al ). There is little experimental evidence for such translocation strategies (Whittet et al ; Bucharova ; Montwé et al ), which in the present case would be consistent with upslope translocations of drier, lower altitude provenances. However, we found no evidence that the local provenances of either species were maladapted despite the growing period tested being consistently warmer than average (MAT was 0.43°C and MAP was 9.7 mm above the contemporary [1976–2005] average; unpublished data).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Stability of species and provenance performance when translocated into different community assemblages

Camarretta

Harrison

Bailey

et al. 2020

Restoration Ecology

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The stability of species and provenance performance across diverse environments is a major issue in restoration, particularly for assisted migration and climate‐adjusted provenancing strategies. This study examines how differences in species and provenance performance are affected by plant community composition in a dry sclerophyll forest restoration experiment. Five indices were measured over 6 years post‐establishment to evaluate the relative performance of community composition using 10 provenances of two focal eucalypts (Eucalyptus pauciflora and Eucalyptus tenuiramis) under six community treatments for E. pauciflora and five for E. tenuiramis. Community treatments varied according to the species planted as the immediate neighbor to the focal species, and included same species, same genus, or one of three different genera. Significant species and provenance differences were observed for all measured performance indices, with no evidence of interaction effects with community treatments. E. tenuiramis was more susceptible to insects and frost, and had poorer establishment but greater growth of the survivors than E. pauciflora. Generally, nonlocal provenances were more susceptible to insect herbivory and frost damage and had higher mortality than local provenances. At this early life‐stage there was no evidence that co‐planted species affected the relative performance of focal species or provenances, arguing transfer functions are likely stable across different planted communities. While species and provenance performance was not affected by community context, focal species differed in their response to upslope migration and any climate‐adjusted provenancing may require staged transfers to avoid maladaptation under contemporary growing conditions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Stability of species and provenance performance when translocated into different community assemblages

Camarretta

Harrison

Bailey

et al. 2020

Restoration Ecology

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“…Our results are in accordance with experimental studies at the range edges of two annual plants showing that gene flow from core populations increases fitness in cold margin populations (Bontrager & Angert, ) but decreases fitness in warm margin populations (Sexton, Strauss, & Rice, ). These findings can help planning mitigation strategies such as assisted gene flow and population translocation (Aitken & Bemmels, ; Benito Garzón & Fernández‐Manjarrés, ; Montwé, Isaac‐Renton, Hamann, & Spiecker, ). Overall, populations from higher latitudes/altitudes will shrink their current adaptation lags in the future, suggesting that the translocation of populations from southern (or lower elevation) populations would not be required.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…reproduction, survival) remains unexplored at this large geographical scale in trees (but see Gárate‐Escamilla, Hampe, Vizcaíno‐Palomar, Robson, & Benito Garzón, ). Moreover, the introduction of pre‐adapted alleles to warmer climates in cold margin populations may mitigate their physiological maladaptation to drought (Isaac‐Renton et al, ) but at the same time increase the risk of frost damage (Montwé et al, ). The same is true for warm margin populations where an increase in adaptation lag for the future is only translated into a decrease in tree height, and cannot be extrapolated to other fitness‐related traits in trees.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

Fréjaville

Vizcaíno‐Palomar

Fady

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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How populations of long‐living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre‐adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range‐wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness‐related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.

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“…, Warwell and Shaw , Montwé et al. ). For widespread desert shrubs, big sagebrush and blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima ), continentality appears to be strongly associated with variation in survival (Richardson et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Minimum winter temperatures, which contribute to continentality, have been shown to be a common factor in genetic adaptation for a number of plant species, affecting phenology, growth, and survival (St Clair et al 2013, Richardson et al 2014, Rehfeldt et al 2017, Warwell and Shaw 2017, Montw e et al 2018. For widespread desert shrubs, big sagebrush and blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima), continentality appears to be strongly associated with variation in survival (Richardson et al 2014.…”

Section: Genetic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐based seed transfer of a widespread shrub: population shifts, restoration strategies, and the trailing edge

Richardson

Chaney

2018

Ecological Applications

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Genetic resources have to be managed appropriately to mitigate the impact of climate change. For many wildland plants, conservation will require knowledge of the climatic factors affecting intraspecific genetic variation to minimize maladaptation. Knowledge of the interaction between traits and climate can focus management resources on vulnerable populations, provide guidance for seed transfer, and enhance fitness and resilience under changing climates. In this study, traits of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were examined among common gardens located in different climates. We focus on two subspecies, wyomingensis and tridentata, that occupy the most imperiled warm-dry spectrum of the sagebrush biome. Populations collected across the sagebrush biome were recorded for flower phenology and survival. Mixed-effects models examined each trait to evaluate genetic variation, environmental effects, and adaptive breadth of populations. Climate variables derived from population-source locations were significantly associated with these traits (P < 0.0001), explaining 31% and 11% of the flower phenology and survival variation, respectively. To illustrate our model and assess variability in prediction, we examine fixed and focal point seed transfer approaches to map contemporary and climate model ensemble projections in two different regions of the sagebrush biome. A comparison of seed transfer areas predicts that populations from warmer climates become more prevalent, replacing colder-adapted populations by mid-century. However, these warm-adapted populations are often located along the trailing edge, margins of the species range predicted to be lost due to a contraction of the climatic niche. Management efforts should focus on the collection and conservation of vulnerable populations and prudent seed transfer to colder regions where these populations are projected to occur by mid-century. Our models provide the foundation to develop an empirical, climate-based seed transfer system for current and future restoration of big sagebrush.

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Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration

Cited by 98 publications

References 65 publications

Stability of species and provenance performance when translocated into different community assemblages

Stability of species and provenance performance when translocated into different community assemblages

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

Climate‐based seed transfer of a widespread shrub: population shifts, restoration strategies, and the trailing edge

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