Collateral Damage: The Cardiovascular Cost of Suppressing COVID-19 Transmission in Australia

Adikari, D.; Kushwaha, Virag; Jepson, Nigel

doi:10.1016/j.hlc.2020.06.008

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The international Lockdown response has been meticulously documented by the Oxford University Government Response tracker[7] which consists of individual lockdown and economic policies scored on an ordinal scale and a composite lockdown score which measures the overall lockdown strength, on a daily basis, for almost every country in the world, a sizeable undertaking which has improved our understanding of the effectiveness of Lockdown strategies. [8] While the lockdown has been widely effective, it has come with substantial financial, social and political costs and exerted a heavy toll on the mental [9], [10] and physical health [11]—[13]of the population. Perpetual lockdown is widely deemed to be politically untenable, though a lockdown of some degree may be the only way of holding the disease back and reducing mortality while vaccine development is in progress.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the future SARS-COV-2 reproductive rate

Ellis

Papadopoulos

Donkov

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Aims To generate a predictive model for the SARS-COV-2 viral reproductive rate, based on government policy and weather parameters. Methods A multivariate model for the log10 of viral reproductive rate was constructed for each country using lockdown stringency (Oxford University tracker), temperature and humidity, for the 1st 110 days of 2020. This was validated by extrapolating to the following 51 days, and comparing the predicted viral rate and cumulative mortality with WHO data. The country models was extrapolated to July 2021 using projected weather forecast for four scenarios; continuing with the 11/6/2020 lockdown policy, 100% lockdown, 20% lockdown and no lockdown. Results From pooled data (40 countries), lockdown stringency had a strong negative correlation with log10viral reproductive rate (-0.648 at 21 days later). Maximum temperature correlated at -0.14, 14 days later and humidity correlated at +0.25, 22 days later. Predictive Models were generated for 11 countries using multivariate regression of these parameters. The R2 correlation for log10R0 ranged from 0.817 to 0.987 for the model generation period. For the validation period, the Pearson's coefficient of correlation for log10R0 ranged from 0.529 to 0.984 and for cumulative mortality from 0.980 to 1.000. Forward extrapolation of these models for 5 nations, demonstrate, that removing the lockdown will result in rapid spread of the disease ranging from as soon as July 2020 for Russia, UK, Italy and India to January 2021 for the USA. The current (11/6/20) lockdown in the USA, Spain, UK, France, Germany, Turkey can control the disease but other nations will need to intensify their lockdowns to prevent future resurgence. Most nations will require more stringent lockdowns in January than in July. Conclusion The viral reproductive rate is highly predicted by a combination of lockdown stringency, temperature and humidity. Country specific predictive models can provide useful forecast of policy requirements.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the future SARS-COV-2 reproductive rate

Ellis

Papadopoulos

Donkov

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Correspondence received has been in strong support of the Statements while drawing attention to associated concerns [17,18]. Sarathy et al cautioned cardiac services against implementing a fibrinolysis strategy for all patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) [17,19]. They reasserted that primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains the standard of care and that, as indicated in the relevant Statements, fibrinolysis should be reserved for select circumstances only [1,9].…”

Section: Changes In Models Of Carementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Editorials, Adikari et al and Allahwala et al have raised concerns that, as health care systems deal with COVID-19 cases, patients with acute and chronic cardiovascular diseases have been delaying or even avoiding medical care due to social distancing measures and concerns about contracting COVID-19 from health care interactions [19,21].…”

Section: Longer Term Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The take-home messages from these “collateral damage” scenarios are that patients should still be encouraged to seek medical care, and especially prompt medical care for cardiac and cerebrovascular emergencies [ 18 , 19 , [21] , [22] , [23] ], and that hospital workflows and processes, while needing to be flexible in these “unprecedented times”, should not be altered to such a degree that patients needing urgent medical care are disadvantaged [ 17 , 18 ].…”

Section: Longer Term Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2020, the viral illness caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and known as coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID- 19), has swept across the human populace of Earth. And not just once.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

COVID-19 and Heart, Lung and Circulation: Riding the 2020 Waves of Change in Australia & New Zealand✰

Gregory

Pepe

Denniss

2020

Heart, Lung and Circulation

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A benefit–cost analysis of different response scenarios to COVID‐19: A case study

Cook

Fraser

McKirdy

2021

Health Science Reports

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Background This paper compares the direct benefits to the State of Western Australia from employing a “suppression” policy response to the COVID‐19 pandemic rather than a “herd immunity” approach. Methods An S‐I‐R (susceptible‐infectious‐resolved) model is used to estimate the likely benefits of a suppression COVID‐19 response compared to a herd immunity alternative. Direct impacts of the virus are calculated on the basis of sick leave, hospitalizations, and fatalities, while indirect impacts related to response actions are excluded. Results Preliminary modeling indicates that approximately 1700 vulnerable person deaths are likely to have been prevented over 1 year from adopting a suppression response rather than a herd immunity response, and approximately 4500 hospitalizations. These benefits are valued at around AUD4.7 billion. If a do nothing policy had been adopted, the number of people in need of hospitalization is likely to have overwhelmed the hospital system within 50 days of the virus being introduced. Maximum hospital capacity is unlikely to be reached in either a suppression policy or a herd immunity policy. Conclusion Using early international estimates to represent the negative impact each type of policy response is likely to have on gross state product, results suggest the benefit–cost ratio for the suppression policy is slightly higher than that of the herd immunity policy, but both benefit–cost ratios are less than one.

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Collateral Damage: The Cardiovascular Cost of Suppressing COVID-19 Transmission in Australia

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Predicting the future SARS-COV-2 reproductive rate

Predicting the future SARS-COV-2 reproductive rate

COVID-19 and Heart, Lung and Circulation: Riding the 2020 Waves of Change in Australia & New Zealand✰

A benefit–cost analysis of different response scenarios to COVID‐19: A case study

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