College reopening and community spread of COVID-19 in the United States

Abstract

Objective. After months of lockdown due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the U.S. postsecondary institutions implemented different instruction approaches to bring their students back for the Fall 2020 semester. Given public health concerns with reopening campuses, the study evaluated the impact of Fall 2020 college reopenings on COVID-19 transmission within the 632 U.S. university counties. Study design. This was a retrospective and observational study. Methods. Bayesian Structural Time-Series (BSTS) models were conducted to investigate the county-level COVID-19 case increases during the first 21 days of Fall 2020. The case increase for each county was estimated by comparing the observed time series (actual daily cases after school reopening) to the BSTS counterfactual time series (predictive daily cases if not reopening during the same time frame). We then employed multilevel models to examine the associations between opening approaches (in-person, online, and hybrid) and county-level COVID-19 case increases within 21 and 42 days after classes began. The multigroup comparison between mask and non-mask required states for these associations were also performed given that the statewide guidelines might moderate the effects of college opening approaches. Results. More than 80% of our university county sample did not experience a significant case increase in Fall 2020. There were no significant relationships between opening approaches and community transmission in both mask and non-mask required states. Only small metropolitan counties and counties with a non-community college or a higher percentage of student population showed significantly positive associations with the case number increase within the first 21-day period of Fall 2020. For the longer 42-day period, the counties with a higher percentage of the student population showed a significant case increase. Conclusion. The overall findings underscored the outcomes of U.S. higher education reopening efforts when the vaccines were still under development in Fall 2020. For individual county results, we invite the college and county level decision-makers to interpret their results by using our web application.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated risk factors: A testing program and nested case-control study conducted at Sapienza University of Rome between March and June 2021

“…However, it has now become clear that the reopening of schools does impact community infection rates, even though appropriate mitigation strategies reduce this effect ( 30 ). There is no doubt that university testing can be effective at limiting the spread of the virus in this setting ( 31 , 32 ), especially when contact tracing has fast turnaround times, as in our study. In addition, the testing center became an educational site for students to gain clinical hours as part of their internships.…”

College Spread of COVID-19 in Ohio

“…College campuses are at risk to develop an high incidence of COVID-19 and become superspreaders for neighboring communities [27]. Meanwhile, more than 80% of our university county sample did not experience a significant case increase in Fall 2020 and there were no significant relationships between opening approaches and community transmission in both maskrequired and non-mask-required states [16]. Referring to the same semester, fall of 2020, County-level COVID-19 incidence decreased in much of the United States in late summer 2020.…”

“…If percentage positivity had been stable or declining across the observation period, then efforts on the part of many colleges and universities to conduct or require testing before students' return to campus and their ongoing surveillance efforts might explain an increase in case counts, as a result of increased case discovery. However, the concurrent increases in percentage positivity and in incidence in these counties suggest that higher levels of transmission, in addition to increased case discovery, occurred in these communities [16]. Yet, the New York Times reported that, "When many campuses reopened in the fall, outbreaks raced through dorms, infected hundreds of thousands of students and employees, and spread to the wider community.…”

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and associated antibody responses among asymptomatic individuals in a large university community

“…Whether or not the reopening of a given college or university contributed to higher off-campus COVID transmission will depend on several variables (e.g. whether a school was in a state that mandated mask-wearing) ( 76 ), but in our case the COVID wave that occurred in our university in January 2021 (Wave 1) peaked during the tail end of one which had been ongoing in surrounding counties (compare FIG 2 to supplemental FIG S2 ). This was also true in Aug 2022, when our campus reopened after summer break and experienced Wave 4, which followed the Delta wave that had already begun in surrounding counties.…”