2020
DOI: 10.1093/esr/jcaa007
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‘Cologne Changed Everything’—The Effect of Threatening Events on the Frequency and Distribution of Intergroup Conflict in Germany

Abstract: In this article, I study the role that threatening events play in shaping both the occurrence and the distribution of intergroup conflict. Using the case of anti-refugee attacks in Germany, the study finds that the 2015 New Year’s Eve (NYE) sexual assaults led to a dramatic surge in the daily rate of violence, far surpassing the more short-lived effect of domestic and European terrorist attacks. Importantly, this effect was more pronounced among districts with low prior levels of anti-refugee hostility and far… Show more

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Cited by 63 publications
(46 citation statements)
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“…According to official estimates, 3.21 million migrants have sought asylum in the European Union during the 2014–2016 refugee crisis, a number unprecedented in recent history (Eurostat, 2017 ). This sudden inflow in turn generated a heated public debate, aroused anti-immigrant sentiments, and fueled the rise of right-wing populism (Czymara and Schmidt-Catran, 2017 ; Geiges, 2018 ; Frey, 2020 ). Standard accounts explain these developments as reactions to rapid cultural change or demographic threats associated with the arrival of large Muslim populations (Hangartner et al, 2019 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…According to official estimates, 3.21 million migrants have sought asylum in the European Union during the 2014–2016 refugee crisis, a number unprecedented in recent history (Eurostat, 2017 ). This sudden inflow in turn generated a heated public debate, aroused anti-immigrant sentiments, and fueled the rise of right-wing populism (Czymara and Schmidt-Catran, 2017 ; Geiges, 2018 ; Frey, 2020 ). Standard accounts explain these developments as reactions to rapid cultural change or demographic threats associated with the arrival of large Muslim populations (Hangartner et al, 2019 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The number of monthly articles increased by four from July to September 2015 (print: from about 100 to about 400; online: from 200 to over 800). Another peak in January 2016 relates to the sexual assaults in Cologne on New Year's Eve, which many connected directly to the inflows of refugees (Frey 2020;Czymara and Schmidt-Catran, 2017). By spring 2016, media attention on the issue declined again, which suggests a normalization of the issue.…”
Section: Descriptive Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This frame focuses on expressions of anti-immigrant protests and violence and the far right. It relates most to the PEGIDA protests, which peaked at the beginning of 2015, and attacks on refugee shelters in Saxony and other parts of Germany (Jäckle and König, 2017;Frey 2020). This is distinct from the right-wing populism frame, which relates to party politics and contains issues relating to Germany's newly emerged right-wing populist party, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).…”
Section: Refugee and Migration Frames In German Mediamentioning
confidence: 99%
“…12 It intensified after reports of alleged sexual abuse of German women by refugee men on New Year's Eve 2015-16 (Frey 2021).…”
Section: Mate Competitionmentioning
confidence: 99%