Colombia: Sub National Murder Cyclicity. 2010- 2020

Abstract

This text describes the evolution of the crime of homicide at the sub-national level, departmental level, for Colombia from years 2010 to 2020 based on open data from Statistics System of the Colombian National Police, SIEDCO, characterizing the behavior and cyclicality within each of the sub-national territories over time considering the differentiated temporal evolution in each of the territorial units. For this, linear regressions are used with categorical variables for time for each year. There it is found the simultaneity or similarity between the behavior of the 32 territories and time. Subsequently, the statistically significant correlation coefficients between the territories are obtained. The differences and similarities between the territories are found, with this coefficient the direction or type of evolution is identified and through this the similarity in the evolution trend is identified. Since the coefficients discriminate the effect and correlation between these coefficients identifies the projection between each pair of territorial data series and its evolution over time.