Combatting the Road Safety Burden in the Developing World: The Case of South Africa

Vanderschuren, Marianne; Arendse, Melvin; Lane-Visser, T; Janmohammed, Aliasgher

doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2020.08.141

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Further variables, focused on the drivers' characteristics such as age, gender, driving experience, the roadway length (for different road grades), the economic development, and education level that are not considered in the present study may be important too as reported in previous studies (Bayam et al, 2005;Eboli and Mazulla 2007;Papantoniou et al, 2019;Papantoniou et al, 2018). Additional factors that may be linked to road crashes but not included in our model are alcohol, seat belts, speed, fatigue, and red-light running as potential behavioral variables (Wegman et al, 2013), while Vanderschuren et al (2020) emphasized the importance of examining infrastructure effects or pedestrian fatality trends. Nevertheless, several studies called for road crashes to be regarded as more driven by a failure of a system and not just of a person (the driver) (Reason, 2000).…”

Section: The Proposed Metamodel For Road Crashes In South Africa and Future Trendsmentioning

confidence: 83%

A Decade Long Slowdown in Road Crashes and Inherent Consequences Predicted for South Africa

Machetele

Yessoufou

2021

Front. Future Transp.

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Globally, there are 1.35 million road fatalities every year, which are estimated to cost governments approximately US$ 518 billion, making road fatalities the eighth leading cause of death across all age groups and the leading cause of death of children and young adults. In South Africa, despite tremendous governmental efforts to curb the soaring trajectory of road crashes, the annual number of road fatalities has increased by 26% in recent years. By fitting a structural equation model (SEM) and a GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to analyze and predict future trend of road crashes (number of road crashes, number of casualties, number of fatal crashes and number of persons killed) in South Africa, we propose and test a complex metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships. We show an increasing trend of road crashes over time, a trend that is predictable by number of vehicles in the country, the population of the country and the total distance travelled by vehicles. We further show that death rate linked to road crashes is on average 23.14 deaths per 100,000 persons. Finally, in the next decade, the number of road crashes is predicted to be roughly constant at 617,253 crashes but can reach 1,896,667 crashes in the worst-case scenario. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93,531 over time, although this number may reach 661,531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease in the next decade, it is forecasted to reach 11,241 within the next 10 years with the worse scenario estimated at 19,034 within the same period. At the same time, the number of persons killed in fatal crashes is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14,739 but may also reach 172,784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals perhaps the positive effects of government initiatives to curb road crashes and their consequences; we call for more stronger actions for a drastic reduction in road accident events in South Africa.

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Section: The Proposed Metamodel For Road Crashes In South Africa and Future Trendsmentioning

confidence: 83%

A Decade Long Slowdown in Road Crashes and Inherent Consequences Predicted for South Africa

Machetele

Yessoufou

2021

Front. Future Transp.

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“…An interesting finding of the study by Vanderschuren et al (2017b) was the significant differences between absolute fatalities per TAZ, compared to the fatality rates per 100 000 population. This is illustrated in Figure 5.…”

Section: Fatality Rate Application For the Case Of Cape Townmentioning

confidence: 93%

A comparison of traditional road safety assessment methods and the newly developed 'road safety deserts' approach

Vanderschuren,

Newlands

2024

J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng.

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Road fatalities were labelled a pandemic as early as 1973 (BMJ 1973). The number of road fatalities reached 1.35 million in 2016. Currently over 3 500 people perish every day on the world's roads. South Africa has one of the highest road fatality rates in the world, with a fatality rate of 25.9 deaths per 100 000 population (WHO 2018). In order to understand and improve the road safety situation of a region, effective road safety assessments must be carried out. This paper presents a comparison of four different road safety assessment approaches, both traditional and novel, and serves as a proof of concept for the 'road safety desert' methodology, a new technique adapted from the 'transit desert' concept. This new approach to road safety assessment explores the possibility of geo-coded supply and demand comparisons to identify 'road safety deserts' - areas that have a comparatively higher road safety risk. This paper shows that there are several unique and effective ways to assess road safety, and that each approach incorporates different characteristics within their methodologies. It is recommended that road safety analysis is conducted using a multitude of methods, so as to improve understanding and intervention selection.

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Combatting the Road Safety Burden in the Developing World: The Case of South Africa

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

A Decade Long Slowdown in Road Crashes and Inherent Consequences Predicted for South Africa

A Decade Long Slowdown in Road Crashes and Inherent Consequences Predicted for South Africa

A comparison of traditional road safety assessment methods and the newly developed 'road safety deserts' approach

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