Combined predictive and descriptive tests for extreme rainfall probability distribution selection

Ballarin, André S.; Calixto, Kalyl Gomes; Anache, Jamil Alexandre Ayach; Wendland, Edson

doi:10.1080/02626667.2022.2063725

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…On average, nearly 90 daily rainfall data points are available, per year, for the estimation of the Weibull parameters. This large sample ensures a robust fit with reduced uncertainties when compared with the GEV‐block maxima approach (Volpi et al., 2019), commonly employed in the country (Ballarin, Calixto, et al., 2022). It is also interesting to note the clear spatial pattern of available data points in the tail: for the Amazon and Pampa biomes more data are available for the Weibull fitting (138 and 102 wet‐days per year, on average, respectively).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Ballarin,

Wendland,

Zaerpour

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different rainfall events are expected to change across Brazil. Specifically, (a) we explored the projected changes in both intensity and frequency of rainfall events belonging to the right‐tail of the rainfall distribution using a non‐parametric approach, and (b) quantified how rainfall events associate with different return periods are expected to intensify, using a parametric approach. We found that extreme rainfall events will become more frequent and intense by the end of the century, with averaged projected changes for rainfall exceeding the historical rainfall quantile q0.99 of nearly 100% and 10% on frequency and intensity, respectively. Non‐extreme rainfall events, in contrast, are expected to be less frequent, aligning with the compensation hypothesis. For instance, Brazilian 100‐year rainfall are anticipated to intensify, on average, 17% and 31% under the moderate and the highest CMIP6 emission scenarios, respectively. Finally, our findings suggest that frequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes of rainfall. We believe that the evidence gathered here will certainly contribute to not only an improved understanding of Brazilian rainfall events but also to a better comprehension of the different rainfall properties, their interplay and how the different ways of assessing them may affect climate studies.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Ballarin,

Wendland,

Zaerpour

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

Self Cite

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“…Jenkinson (1955) introduced the concept of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Since then, it has been widely used in flood frequency estimation, rainfall frequency analysis, wind analysis, and several other applications in natural and social sciences (Martins and Stedinger 2000, Katz et al 2002, Engeland et al 2004, Ailliot et al 2011, Rulfová et al 2016, Ballarin et al 2022. Thus, the GEV distribution was selected to analyze the probability densities of extreme value time series of V max , R max, and D max .…”

Section: Identification Of Monsoon Rain Spell Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological impacts of altered monsoon rain spells in the Indian Ganga basin: a century-long perspective

Maurya,

Swarnkar,

Prakash

2024

Environ. Res.: Climate

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The Indian Ganga Basin (IGB) is one of the most valuable socioeconomic regions in the Indian subcontinent. The IGB supports more than half a billion people due to an abundant supply of freshwater for agro-industrial purposes, primarily through Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall contributions (~85%). Any alterations in ISM characteristics would significantly affect freshwater availability, and as a result, socioeconomic activities would be affected. Therefore, in this study, we have attempted to assess how the monsoon rain spell characteristics, i.e., peak, volume, and duration, altered historically between 1901 to 2019. We further analyzed the specific IGB regions where monsoon rain spell changes are more prominent and their hydrological implications. Our estimates reveal that short-duration high-magnitude rain spells have significantly increased across the major regions of the IGB after 1960, which implies the increased probabilities of flash flood hazards. At the same time, the rain spell volumes have been depleted across the IGB after 1960, especially in the eastern Indo-Gangetic plains and southern IGB regions, indicating increased drought frequencies. Further, Himalayan regions, i.e., upper Ganga, upper Yamuna, and upper Ghaghra, have demonstrated increasing magnitudes of rain spell peaks, volume, and duration post-1960. In addition, the continuous warming and anthropogenic alterations might further exaggerate the current situation. Thus, these inferences are helpful for river basin management strategies to deal with the extreme hydrological disasters in the IGB.

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Trends and abrupt changes in extreme rainfall events and their influence on design quantiles: a case study in São Paulo, Brazil

Ballarin

Anache²,

Wendland³

2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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Combined predictive and descriptive tests for extreme rainfall probability distribution selection

Cited by 4 publications

References 49 publications

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Hydrological impacts of altered monsoon rain spells in the Indian Ganga basin: a century-long perspective

Trends and abrupt changes in extreme rainfall events and their influence on design quantiles: a case study in São Paulo, Brazil

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