Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation

Houet, Thomas; Marchadier, Colette; Bretagne, Geneviève; Moine, Marie‐Pierre; Aguejdad, Rahim; Vigui, V.; Bonhomme, Marion; Lemonsu, Aude; Avner, Paolo; Hidalgo, Julia; Masson, Valéry

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.010

Cited by 47 publications

(28 citation statements)

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“…Land-use change models are useful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes, understanding the causes and consequences, and predicting the possible future outcomes of land-use change [18,19]. Analysis of scenarios with land-use modeling can provide support for land-use planning [20][21][22] and help inform policymakers of possible future patterns under different policy restraint conditions [23]. As a typical spatially explicit and empirically based statistical model, the CLUE-S (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model treats the competition between different types of land uses based on systems theory, simulating different land uses simultaneously.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundaries Using the CLUE-S Land-Use Change Model: Study on Xinzhuang Town, Changshu City, China

Zhou

Zhang

et al. 2016

Sustainability

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Abstract:Over the past decades, urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been regarded as effective tools applied by planners and local governments to curb urban sprawl and guide urban smart growth. The UGBs help limit urban development to suitable areas and protect surrounding agricultural and ecological landscapes. At present, China's Town and Country Planning Act officially requires the delimitation of UGBs in a city master planning outline and in central urban area planning. However, China's practices in UGBs are usually determined by urban planners and local authorities, and lack a sound analytical basis. Consequently, Chinese UGBs are often proven to be inefficient for controlling urban expansion. In this paper, take the fast-growing Xinzhuang town of Changshu city, eastern China as an example, a new method towards establishing UGBs is proposed based on land-use change model (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent, CLUE-S). The results of our study show that the land-use change and urban growth simulation accuracy of CLUE-S model is high. The expansion of construction land and the decrease of paddy field would be the main changing trends of local land use, and a good deal of cultivated land and ecological land would be transformed into construction land in 2009-2027. There is remarkable discordance in the spatial distribution between the simulated UGBs based on the CLUE-S model and the planned UGBs based on the conventional method, where the simulated results may more closely reflect the reality of urban growth laws. Therefore, we believe that our method could be a useful planning tool for the delimitation of UGBs in Chinese cities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundaries Using the CLUE-S Land-Use Change Model: Study on Xinzhuang Town, Changshu City, China

Zhou

Zhang

et al. 2016

Sustainability

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“…The two types of scenario products are often combined in the Story-And-Simulation (SAS) approach (Alcamo, 2008), which refers to an iterative, stepwise process to link narratives and quantifications. The inherent difference between the two scenario types poses great challenges to their integration in the SAS approach (Houet et al, 2016). Several methods have been developed to address this issue by jointly considering research objectives, scales and desired level of participation in the scenario process (c.f.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mallampalli et al (2016) for an overview). In this study, we applied an approach known as 'hardwiring' of the two scenario types (Houet et al, 2016). Thus, scenario drivers are quantified without violating the background climate and socio-economic settings of each scenario, and they consist of both quantitative model estimations (i.e., national GDP, population and temperature) and qualitative information generated through the participation of stakeholders (i.e., residential preferences and planning regulations on urban green infrastructure and urban morphology).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…responses. An example can be found for the fine level simulation of urban growth (Houet et al, 2016), in which the authors utilised a novel six-step method to generate a set of seven contrasting scenarios for climate adaption. Moreover, lower-end climate change scenarios need further attention following the ambition set in the Paris Agreement of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary

Juhász-Horváth²,

Pedde

et al. 2017

Environmental Modelling & Software

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“…In the collaboration between several actors, especially institutional and academic ones, one field where co-construction is particularly important is during scenario development. During the conception of UCS, urban scenarios are built at both the services and technical levels: they are built in a cooperative way with the stakeholders, and then translated into input variables for the models (Houet et al, 2017). This allows definition of practical tools for UCS and facilitates knowledge exchange between sectors and between planners and academics.…”

Section: Level Of Integration and Connection Between Elements And Secmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated urban services: Experience from four cities on different continents

et al. 2020

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A B S T R A C TRapid urbanization combined with climate change necessitates new types of urban services that make best use of science and technology. The Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services and systems are a new initiative from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that seeks to provide science-based integrated urban services supporting safe, healthy and resilient cities. Various cities have already started development and implementation of such Integrated Urban Services and successfully test and use them following specific requirements of local stakeholders. This paper demonstrates the novel concept and approach of Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services (IUS) from a set of four case study cities: Hong Kong, Toronto, Mexico City and Paris, that use different IUS configurations with good existing practice. These cities represent a range of countries, climates and geophysical settings. The aggregate main joint similarities of the IUS in these cities and synergy of the cities' experience, achievements and research findings are presented, as well as identification of existing gaps in knowledge and further research needs. A list of potential criteria for identifying and classifying IUS demonstration cities is proposed. It will aid future, more detailed analysis of the IUS experience, and selection of additional demonstration cities. Introduction to urban data and services needsUrbanization is an ongoing phenomenon and a growing number of urban settings are particularly vulnerable to weather and climate events, including floods, storms, heat waves, sea-level rise and poor air quality. In addition, urban dwellers are the primary users of energy and resources, and contribute in a significant way to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gasses as well as air pollution. These alterations to the atmosphere from urban to global scales have consequent impacts on human health and the environment. But the urban setting also provides exciting opportunities for scientific advancement in the field of new observations, data assimilation, high resolution coupled modeling and user-specific systems and services for sustainable and climate smart cities.Most (90%) of the disasters affecting urban areas are of a hydro-meteorological nature and these have increased due to climate https://doi.

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Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation

Cited by 47 publications

References 41 publications

The Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundaries Using the CLUE-S Land-Use Change Model: Study on Xinzhuang Town, Changshu City, China

The Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundaries Using the CLUE-S Land-Use Change Model: Study on Xinzhuang Town, Changshu City, China

Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary

Integrated urban services: Experience from four cities on different continents

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