Combining the standardized precipitation index and climatic water deficit in characterizing droughts: a case study in Romania

Paltineanu, Cristian; Mihailescu, I. F.; Prefac, Zoia; Dragotă, Carmen-Sofia; Vasenciuc, F.; Claudia, Nicola

doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0061-1

Cited by 46 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Since 1950, a positive tendency of drought patterns has been observed over some regions of the globe [8][9][10], in part due to global warming [11]. Within the European context, the positive drought trends seem to be particularly acute in the Mediterranean area [10,12,13], where increased dryness [14][15][16] and temperature is more notorious [6,17]. As shown in a recent study by Dumitrescu et al [18] covering all of Romania over the period 1961-2013, the most striking results concern the number of summer days, which has increased by 95% in of the considered stations, while an increase in the duration of warm spells of 83% has been observed in the same stations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

Moreira

Russo

Trigo

2018

Water

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Drought class transitions over a sector of Eastern Europe were modeled using log-linear models. These drought class transitions were computed from time series of two widely used multiscale drought indices, the Standardized Preipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with temporal scales of 6 and 12 months for 15 points selected from a grid over the Prut basin in Romania over a period of 112 years . The modeling also took into account the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), exploring the potential influence of this large-scale atmospheric driver on the climate of the Prut region. To assess the probability of transition among different drought classes we computed their odds and the corresponding confidence intervals. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of the modeling, skill scores were computed and used for comparison against benchmark models, namely using persistence forecasts or modeling without the influence of the NAO index. The main results indicate that the log-linear modeling performs consistently better than the persistence forecast, and the highest improvements obtained in the skill scores with the introduction of the NAO predictor in the modeling are obtained when modeling the extended winter months of the SPEI6 and SPI12. The improvements are however not impressive, ranging between 4.7 and 6.8 for the SPEI6 and between 4.1 and 10.1 for the SPI12, in terms of the Heidke skill score.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

Moreira

Russo

Trigo

2018

Water

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“…The present work aims to carry out such a study. Regarding Romania, several studies documented on the analysis of the climate extremes variability (Tomozeiu et al, 2002;Baciu et al, 2004;Busuioc et al, 2007Busuioc et al, , 2010Pȃltineanu et al, 2009;Birsan and Dumitrescu, 2014) but most of them used a limited number of stations/short intervals for analysis or did not enter into the details of the mechanisms controlling their variability. The present study attempts to fill this gap.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes in Romania and associated large‐scale mechanisms

et al. 2014

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ABSTRACT:The simultaneous variability of several climate extremes in Romania on the one hand and the understanding of the large-scale mechanisms responsible for this variability on the other are examined. Ten indices associated with temperature and precipitation extremes computed at high spatial resolution for the period 1961-2010 are analysed. Significant increasing trends for the temperature extremes are detected in all seasons, except for autumn, with the highest increasing rate in summer and the lowest in spring. Regarding precipitation extremes, significant increasing trends over large areas in the frequency of very wet days and maximum daily amount during autumn and in the maximum duration of dry spells during summer are the only ones detected.The large-scale mechanisms responsible for these characteristics of variability, especially the simultaneous variability of several climate extremes, are identified through the canonical correlation analysis applied to a combination of various large-scale predictors and to combined climate extremes.In winter, it was found that the thermodynamic factor (represented by air temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) mainly controls the trends of temperature extremes in Romania, whereas the dynamic one (represented by the sea level pressure anomalies) controls the pattern of trend magnitude. Regarding precipitation extremes, the role of the two factors is reversed. The Carpathians' influence is noted for this season. In summertime, the thermodynamic factor is dominant for both temperature and precipitation extremes analysed in this article. For temperature extremes, the T850 alone could explain their variability characteristics, whereas for precipitation extremes (frequency and duration) the SH700 has the dominant role, except for the maximum duration of dry intervals, which is controlled by a combination of T850 and SH700 anomalies. The connections found in this study are strong and explain a great part of the total observed variance, showing that these results can be used in a future study to build skilful statistical downscaling models, simultaneously for several seasonal climate extremes, giving the results more physical coherence.

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“…In other regions, some transitional dynamics are dominating the others -forestation in the center and abandonment of the agriculture in the southeast. The latest can be also related to the draughts characteristic to the regions, which created additional obstacles to the agriculture (Dragotă et al, 2011;Păltineanu et al, 2007Păltineanu et al, , 2009Petrişor, 2015a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

2006-2012 Land Cover and Use Changes in Romania – An Overall Assessment Based on Corine Data

Petrişor¹,

Petrişor²

2017

Present Environment and Sustainable Development

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Abstract. Land cover and use changes are an important component of the global changes, and in relationship with their transitional dynamics reflect the impact of socio-economic transition. This study is aimed at exploring the land cover and use changes occurred during 2006-2012 in Romania with respect to their spatial distribution over the regions of development and main transitional dynamics. The results suggest that the main drivers of change are deforestation and urbanization, accounting for 3/4 of all changes, and that the most affected regions are the northwest, southwest, center and northeast ones. Overall, the findings suggest a continuation of the trends from the previous periods, characteristic to transition economies.

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Combining the standardized precipitation index and climatic water deficit in characterizing droughts: a case study in Romania

Cited by 46 publications

References 6 publications

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes in Romania and associated large‐scale mechanisms

2006-2012 Land Cover and Use Changes in Romania – An Overall Assessment Based on Corine Data

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