Comments on the concept of ultra-low, cryptic tropical fruit fly populations

Abstract

ecosistemi (UTAGRI-ECO), Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA),

A synthesis for managing invasions and pest risks simultaneously for tephritid fruit flies in South Africa

“…For example, to monitor current fruit fly population abundance, South Africa makes use of traps baited with a lure (parapheromone) or food bait attractant. This statement has led to a heated debate regarding when a species is considered established and what approach is more favourable to predicting areas of establishment (Carey et al, 2014;Gutierrez et al, 2014). Land managers should ideally consider a range of factors when planning a monitoring programme, including the type of trap (Navarro-Llopis et al, 2008) and lure or attractant used (Grout et al, 2011;Manrakhan & Kotze, 2011), local weather conditions (Vargas et al, 2000), and host plants in the vicinity of the traps (Epsky et al, 2010).…”

Eradication of tephritid fruit fly pest populations: outcomes and prospects

“…To date three teams with 45 authors including some of us have opposed the interpretation by Papadopoulos et al (Barr et al (), Gutierrez et al () and a 30+ author presentation with an abstract from the Ninth International Symposium on Fruit Flies of Economic Importance (McInnis et al )). Gutierrez et al () said of the Papadopoulos, Plant and Carey analysis: "In summary, inference of establishment of fruit flies based on recurrence data is neither explanatory nor provides confirmation of establishment in California…".…”

Response to commentary by Gutierrez et al.

“…Gutierrez et al [1] re-stated much of our narrative about our N statistic and re-affirmed that our statistical test was anti-conservative [2, p. 7]. These authors stated correctly that it is impossible to disprove our hypotheses but, short of detections of all stages over multiple years for any particular species, it is impossible to disprove any hypotheses, including any they might propose.…”

“…Gutierrez et al [1] raise several technical issues concerning our paper [2] to which we will reply later. However, the main thrust of their commentary was that the physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) described by Gutierrez & Ponti [3] would provide a more enlightened, alternative approach 'that addresses the biology of the invasive species' [1, p. 1].…”

“…The overarching problem with the author's commentary [1] is that they shift the focus of the analysis to the inappropriate use of simulation models in general and of their faulty PBDM in particular [3]. In doing so they ignore the actual data for 17 tephritid species, 11 386 individuals, 3348 locations and 326 infested cities.…”