Commodity Prices after COVID-19: Persistence and Time Trends

Abstract

Since December 2019 we have been living with the virus known as SARS-CoV-2, a situation which has led to health policies being given prevalence over economic ones and has caused a paralysis in the demand for raw materials for several months due to the number confinements put in place around the world. Since the worst days of the pandemic caused by COVID-19, most commodity prices have been recovering. The main objective of this research work is to learn about the evolution and impact of COVID-19 on the prices of raw materials in order to understand how it will affect the behavior of the economy in the coming quarters. To this end, we use fractionally integrated methods and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. During the COVID-19 pandemic episode, we observe that commodity prices have a mean reverting behavior, indicating that it will not be necessary to take additional measures since the series will return, by themselves, to their long term projections. Moreover, in our forecast using ANN algorithms, we observe that the Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index will recover its upward trend, increasing some 56.67% to the price from before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic episode.

Beef, lamb, pork and poultry meat commodity prices: Historical fluctuations and synchronisation with a focus on recent global crises

“…around the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. This result is in line with those of Monge and Lazcano (2022), who observed a mean-reverting behaviour in commodity prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. A subsequent fall in prices has been following until the present.…”

Uncovering Dynamic Connectedness of Artificial Intelligence Stocks with Agri-Commodity Market in Wake of COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine Invasion

“…They also reported a two-way causality nexus between conventional energy commodity prices and economic progress at various frequencies and phases. In the similar line Umar et al ( 2021); Rathod et al (2022); Monge and Lazcano (2022); Irhan (2022).…”

Optimizing Hydrogen-Rich Biofuel Production: Syngas Generation from Wood Chips and Corn Cobs

“…The recent escalation in fuel prices has garnered widespread global attention due to its intricate relationship with the ongoing energy crisis. This crisis has been further exacerbated by the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic [1,2] and the protracted Russian-Ukrainian conflict, both of which have had adverse consequences on global production and supply chains. This study delves into the multifaceted factors contributing to this intricate and precarious situation, elucidating the response of the European Union (EU) in adopting stringent geopolitical measures, including the imposition of sanctions and embargoes.…”