Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study

Abstract

As increasing amounts of data accumulate on the effects of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 and the risk factors that lead to poor outcomes, it is possible to produce personalised estimates of the risks faced by groups of people with different characteristics. The challenge of how to communicate these then becomes apparent. Based on empirical work (total n=5,520, UK) supported by in-person interviews with public and physicians, we make recommendations on the presentation of such information. These include: using predominantly percentages when communicating the absolute risk, but also providing (for balance) a format which conveys a higher perception of risk (expected frequency out of 10,000); using a visual linear scale cut at an appropriate point to illustrate the maximum risk, explained through an illustrative 'persona' who might face that highest level of risk; and providing context to the absolute risk through presenting a range of other 'personas' illustrating people who would face risks of a wide range of different levels. These 'personas' should have their major risk factors (age, existing health conditions) described. By contrast, giving people absolute likelihoods of other risks they face in an attempt to add context was considered less helpful.

Stress and worry in the 2020 coronavirus pandemic: relationships to trust and compliance with preventive measures across 48 countries in the COVIDiSTRESS global survey

“…[1][2][3]) and provide suggestions for practitioners (e.g. [4][5][6]). To our knowledge, there is currently no other project comparing human responses to COVID-19 across such a large number of countries.…”

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“…This kind of context is important to help people get a sense of the distribution of risk, and where they are within it, and helps make sense of the numbers. We’ve found this is more helpful to people than trying to compare someone’s risk from covid-19 with their risk from other illnesses 9…”

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“…Additionally, including infographics, which combines visuals, or illustrations, and text will likely increase the persuasiveness of messages compared to messages consisting of text or visuals alone (Freeman et al, 2021;Lazard & Atkinson, 2015;Spiegelhalter et al, 2011). An infographic could, for example, use pictograms showing people washing their hands and keeping a 2m-distance.…”